The thought of taking a $50 bill out of my pocket, calmly folding it, and then ripping it in half is foreign to me. This occurs all the time though in society because of such things as parking tickets. Even more relevantly, the thought of spending $50 on a tank of gas is painful, but usually necessary. The reality of spending $50 on things like food at a grocery store at any given time is pressing. And of course the thought of spending $50 for something fun like a dinner out is always nice. Totally different thought- a friend of mine has an awesome old school pinball machine. I still love racking up the points in getting lost in the game in watching the digits flick into the millions. I love the competitiveness much less the numbers going up up up. Now with the $50 discourse, you'll note that no matter how it's used, $50 is $50. With the pinball game, it's just a game. OK. Time to get to my point. In trading, one needs to focus much more on the pinball aspect of it all the while remembering the money aspect at crucial times (defined in a second). But on any given day, when I am trading, I think of my net P&L as the numbers from pinball. If I lose $500 on a trade and think of it as 500 bucks rather than 500 points, it is mentally grinding after awhile. So I don't. I just view trading as a game. The corollary is when I am up or down a lot (“a lot” meaning four figures or more). When down a lot, I just realize what it is I am doing and how devastating it can be to my personal finances if I am reckless. When going well, it is important to realize things like I paid for my mortgage in an hour at which point I take a quick walk, realize I need to keep plugging if I want to retire, but be grateful. Overall, my point is that you cannot think of your trading as generating money as you're doing it else it can impair judgment. Just realize it's a different kind of game and try to accumulate as many points as possible as you play rather than worry about what your next trade can generate monetarily. It's a mentality which literally saved my career and has sustained me for over 15 years. It's so much easier to be calm when you win 800 points in two minutes or to keep yourself sane when you lose 800 points in two minutes than in worrying about the meaning behind your score.
Markets in Asia were down overnight following the S&P downgrade of Japanese debt with Tokyo down 1.2% and Hong Kong off 0.8%. Markets are mixed throughout Europe with Frankfurt up 0.1% but London down 0.8%. The dollar is down against the yen but flat against the euro. Bonds are notably weaker. Oil is up 0.5% but gold is off slightly. Futures were initially lower on the earnings flow but bounced back on the GDP data out earlier this morning. The only other economic number of note due out today is at 9:55AM- Michigan Sentiment final (73.2). Look for a relatively quiet session once again as most traders are tired from earnings season (and snow shoveling). The focus will once again be squared on the earnings plays mainly with secondary set-ups to be found in the rare earths and relative weakness plays on the open in particular because of the aforementioned generally negative earnings news from the bigger companies.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
CCME- closed near a high after a positive mention in a Street.Com article
QCOM- closed near a high after posting earnings
UA- closed near a high after posting earnings
NFLX- closed near a high after posting earnings
ZMH- closed near a high after posting earnings
ETN- closed near a high after posting earnings
BSET- closed near a high after posting earnings
CRUS- closed near a high after posting earnings
UTEK- closed near a high after posting earnings
MLNX- closed near a high after posting earnings
HP- closed near a high after posting earnings
TSCO- closed near a high after posting earnings
GS- closed near a high
QPSA- closed near a high
BKI- closed near a high
SNDK- decent earnings
BGP –received financing from GE Capital and looks to restructure
CPHD- decent earnings
KLAC- decent earnings
RMBS- decent earnings and renewed patent with Panasonic
LSCC- good earnings
OPLK- great earnings
TNAV- good earnings
TMRK- received $19/share takeover offer from VZ; EQIX, RAX and SVVS likely to move in sympathy
INFA- decent earnings
RVBD- decent earnings
VSEA- good earnings
APKT- closed near a high
AERL- closed near a high
NUE- featured on “Mad Money” last night
CBAK- decent earnings
DOV- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
PSTI- closed near a low after announcing a share offering
FCX- closed near a low
APA- closed near a low after shutting two oil fields offshore of northwest Australia
AMZN- horrible earnings
THOR- horrible earnings
TSRA- poor earnings
VPRT- poor earnings
MWW- horrible earnings
DRIV- horrible earnings
PMCS- horrible earnings
CB- poor earnings
VRSN- poor earnings
BPL- share offering
RMD- poor earnings
ARNA- provided a Lorcaserin regulatory update and cut 25% of workforce
MYGN- poor earnings
ARBA- poor earnings
CNX- closed near a low after announcing earnings
F- terrible earnings
HON- poor earnings
D- poor earnings
ACI- terrible earnings
Earnings:
FRI JAN 28 BEFORE
ACI CVX D
DOV F HON
OSK SMG SNV
TROW WL
FRI JAN 28 AFTER
JBHT
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
No comments:
Post a Comment