As most people saw from the raw footage over Friday and then again over the weekend, there has been massive unrest throughout northern Africa from Tunisia to Egypt. Specifically in Egypt, demonstrators are seeking the ouster of the president Hosni Bubarak. The protests, however, really got going in earnest when a longtime top official of the nuclear overseer agency of the United Nations (Mohammed El-Baradei) was placed under house arrest. The government actually shut down Internet access and imposed a night curfew. But there obviously is a deeper undertone. There was a lot of discontent with the parliamentary elections late last year (fancy talk for many people thinking a fix was in), high unemployment, and the likely prospect for stasis with President Mubarak (or his son maintaining power) have set off the riots. It has not helped that there has been rampant inflation- particularly food inflation- for years now in not only Egypt but in nations like India. At this point, things are quite fluid with it remaining to be seen if internal security forces can handle the mess. A sort-of shadow/undertone government formed last month which is attempting to portray itself as the opposition party to Mubarak. The whole development certainly is not good for the U.S. as the U.S. has maintained a policy of staying out of it which actually may prove to be a bad thing because of the lack of human rights much less democracy as a concept in Egypt. Economically, Egypt is not one of the world’s top oil exporters…yet it has relationships with many peers who are major exporters of oil. Instability there can impact oil prices (as happened on Friday) which of course has implications for the world economy as the country borders the Suez Canal. And the big thing is here is something I will only touch on for now- what if these situations spread the way the downfall of communism spread in the late 1980’s? There are seeds of social unrest in many Middle East nations so the situation can get out of hand if not contained. So, as the events in the likes of Tunisia and Egypt continue to unfold, monitor the situation for sure as not only could it spread throughout the region but it certainly can be quite a factor for trading in general in the days to come.
Markets in Asia were down overnight with Hong Kong down 0.7% and Tokyo off 1.1%. The tone is a bit better in Europe though with London down 0.1%, Frankfurt flat, and Paris up 0.2%. The dollar is flat against the yen but notably down a euro. Oil is up slightly but gold has given back 1%. Bonds are down slightly. Personal income came in slightly worse than expected, consumer spending slightly stronger than expected, and PCE-Core was a tinge weaker. Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45AM (65.0). Markets are bouncing a bit for one reason- the situation didn’t worsen in Egypt in terms of the broader economy over the weekend (no Suez Canal closure, et al) so a bit of the weekend fear premium is coming off. Look for a relatively quiet day barring extenuating news out of the Middle East with a lot of churning in a tug-of-war between fear mongers and bottom seekers. The focus will likely be on all the major earnings plays, the oils (particularly off of XOM’s earnings), the Chinese plays off of SOHU’s numbers, the various merger plays, small cap biotechs in the news (DEPO and NPSP), and relative weakness plays off of the opening bell.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
NFLX- closed near a high
VELT- closed near a high
MEE- closed near a high
ARAY- closed near a high after posting earnings
EPAY- closed near a high after posting earnings
DEO- received FDA OK of Gralise tablets
CHK- agreed to sale of $570 million of several shale oil and gas leases to Cnooc
NPSP- positive phase III Gattex study results
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
TEN- closed near a low
AIG- closed near a low
RIMM- closed near a low
WYNN- closed near a low
FSLR- closed near a low
MA- closed near a low
MON- closed near a low
GS- closed near a low
URZ- closed near a low
MHK- closed near a low
CTRP- closed near a low
CELG- closed near a low after a downgrade
TSRA- closed near a low after posting earnings
MWW- closed near a low after posting earnings
SNDK- closed near a low after posting earnings
MYGN- closed near a low after posting earnings
PLD- entered into merger of equals with AMB in which PLD shareholders will receive .4464 shares of AMB
BGP- delayed payments again to vendors and skipped other payments
MEE- merging with ANR; shareholders to receive $10/share in cash and 1.02 shares of ANR for each MEE share held
ASIA- decent earnings
CHKP- decent earnings
XOM- decent earnings
SOHU- good earnings
Earnings:
MON JAN 31 BEFORE
CHKP GCI ITW
ROP SOHU WDR
XOM
MON JAN 31 AFTER
APC BCR BIDU
CAVM EMN HOLX
IDTI IRF MCK
MTW NVLS PCL
PRXL
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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