A few weeks ago, I noted that I had analyzed many trades in order to truly gather data for attempting to aid my own trading performance particularly in light of the switchover of EDGX to the Direct Edge Stock Exchange. A few people asked me about it so I want to go into one of my (many) weird quirks so I can explain myself better. I had a phenomenal trading year in 2001. The volatility of that time served me quite well thankfully. In 2002, as the markets settled in, my year trended lower as compared to 2001…I was profitable every single month of the year but to say that my January/February was better than my November/December is an understatement. As 2003 started, I got off to a decent if unspectacular start. Around the 3rd weekend in January, I decided to go back and analyze the first two weeks of my trades in 2003 to see if I could find something to improve myself. I figured some things out…but the best thing that came out of that experience is that each and every trading day, I keep track of the stocks I trade, the amount of shares I trade in each, the total revenues, the total costs, and the net profit of each symbol. Every week, I go over the previous week’s trades. Once a month, I analyze the previous month’s trades. Once a year, I analyze the previous year’s trades. Furthermore, when there is a time that I don’t trade as well as I feel I could, I go back to this gigantic spreadsheet of my trading career. Not only is it from this spreadsheet that I have been able to find the tenets for what generally works and what doesn’t (for me), it keeps me from losing vast amounts of money because I am forced everyday if nothing else to re-live the previous day or two and subconsciously much less consciously study my trading as I enter my data. It is this spreadsheet more than any one factor (and accompanying notes when I am going really well or really poorly when I denote my best and worst trades- some of which have formed the basis of blog entries in this space) which provide a harvest of information for me to better myself as a trader.
Markets throughout the world were mixed overnight. In Asia, Tokyo was up 0.5% with Hong Kong down 0.6%. In Europe, Frankfurt is up 0.1% while London is down 0.4%. Gold is down slightly with oil up ½%. Bonds are a tinge higher with the dollar a tinge lower. Futures are slightly ahead. There’s no economic data out. All of this is Erik code for “it’s relatively quiet right now.” For the day, the story remains the dollar but with movement muted ahead of this weekend’s G-20, equity movement will likely be choppy but in a less volatile range than yesterday. Focus on the earnings, the techs, the rare earth plays once again, and random microcaps that have random moves (such as LIVE and CDTID yesterday).
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
BIDU- decent earnings
SNDK- great earnings
RVBD- great earnings
NCR- decent earnings
CMG- great earnings
FTNT- decent earnings
NFLX- closed near a high after posting great earnings
GRA- closed near a high after posting decent earnings
CYD- closed near a high
SURG- closed near a high
TZOO- closed near a high after posting decent earnings
LYTS- closed near a high after posting decent earnings
VRA- closed near a high
CODE- closed near a high
CY- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
KEY- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
AMZN- poor earnings
CTXS- poor earnings
BUCY- terrible earnings
QLGC- poor earnings
CYT- terrible earnings
INFA- poor earnings
ALGN- poor earnings
CRUS- closed near a low after reporting awful earnings and mentioned negatively on “Mad Money” last night
JCG- closed near a low
BORN- closed near a low
REE- closed near a low
ARO- closed near a low
HOC- closed near a low
LHO- closed near a low after posting earnings
LTM- closed near a low after posting earnings
FNF- closed near a low after posting earnings
GRNB- closed near a low after posting earnings
Earnings:
FRI OCT 22 BEFORE
BPOP DOV EXC
HON IR KEY
PAG SLB TROW
VZ
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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