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Thursday, October 21, 2010

THURS. OCT. 21- What's The Market Thinking About?

Don’t worry. I won’t be graphic. I just have to describe something to make a point. It is all about childbirth. I’ve been lucky enough to witness much less play a part in the delivery of both of my beautiful little girls (Rayna and Samara). During the process, a zillion thoughts passed through my mind. But the pervading thought that I was left with was how everything was a blur leading up to their births. I remembered in a mental cacophony in my mind the discussions, the ‘could we handle it,’ the moments of pregnancy from when my wife and I told the world we were going to be parents to the moments when she had intense morning sickness. But all of that mental noise was eviscerated on the mornings of the angels’ births. All that mattered was that the kids and my wife were happy and, thank G-d, healthy. After sitting at my desk for a few minutes, could not think of a more applicable analogy for this stock market. On Tuesday, we heard headlines about China (some of us wrote a blog post yesterday about it), the pending foreclosure mess at the likes of Bank of America, and relatively poor earnings flow. But when I awoke yesterday morning, I noted that the dollar had fallen a full euro. By the end of the day, the loss was almost 2 ½ euros and the market had recouped for the most part Tuesday’s losses. Despite all of those Tuesday worries, the losses were wiped out yesterday because the dollar took a dive. ss has been noted in this space, when the dollar declines in recent months, it has been good for equities and vice versa. So, it is important as always to keep track of as much data as possible, but just as nothing mattered when my kids were born, nothing mattered to the markets net-net these last two days except for the performance of the greenback. Thus, that was the singular most important sign to show you where the market’s focus is right now and will likely be for some time to come.

Markets in Asia were lightly mixed overnight with Tokyo closing ostensibly flat but Hong Kong was up 0.4%. Markets in Europe have traded higher all morning to the tune of about ¾% on average as of this writing. The dollar leads the way again with it above 1.40 to the euro and below 81 to the yen. Gold and oil are slightly lower. Futures are higher on all of this but a bit off of their heights of the morning. LEI 0.3%) and Phily Fed (1.4) are both due out at 10AM. As has been so often the case recently, track the dollar to track the equities intra-day. Action will likely be choppy but maintain an upside bias. The focus is on the triple digit amount of companies that reported earnings this morning, the rare earth plays, and the big cap techs.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-



Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

NFLX- great earnings

EBAY- great earnings

TSCO- good earnings

TSS- decent earnings

RHI- decent earnings

RJF- decent earnings

LNN- closed near a high after posting earnings

BA- closed near a high after posting earnings

WSCI- closed near a high after posting earnings

HUBG- closed near a high after posting earnings

URZ- closed near a high

GS- closed near a high

RIMM- closed near a high

UAL- closed near a high and had decent earnings

IL- featured on “Mad Money” last night

WSTL- decent earnings

NLST- demonstrated 100 virtual machines on a single standard server using Hypercloud Memory at Interop

ALXN- decent earnings

BAX- decent earnings

DO- decent earnings

STI- decent earnings

TRV- decent earnings

CAT- good earnings

FCX- great earnings

LUV- good earnings

MCD- good earnings

ISLN- good earnings

PNC- decent earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

ADS- terrible earnings

STX- poor earnings

XLNX- poor earnings

TEX- poor earnings

MCP- closed near a low

FMBI- closed near a low after posting earnings

MLNX- poor earnings

HSY- bad earnings

PM- poor earnings

CYS- poor earnings

PM- poor earnings

PLCE- terrible earnings outlook

K- bad earnings

CRUS- terrible earnings

NTRS- poor earnings

FLIR- poor earnings

UNP- poor earnings

CY- poor earnings

ESI- poor earnings




Earnings:

THURS OCT 21 BEFORE

ALK ALXN APD

BAX BBT CAT

CRUS CY DHR

DO ESI ETR

FCX FLIR GR

HBAN HSY ISLN

JNS LH LLY

LUV MCD NTRS

NUE PCP PCX

PM PNC PPG

R RAI RS

STI T TRV

UAL UNP UPS

VFC XRX

THURS OCT 21 AFTER

ALB AMZN AXP

BCR BIDU

BUCY CA CB

CMG CPWR CTXS

CYMI CYT ELX

INFA MCRL NCR

PLCM PMCS QLGC

RMBS RVBD SNDK

SYNA WOOF



Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

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