On a day like Friday when trading becomes quite slow, oftentimes one can create something out of seemingly nothing amid the environment we are in. By that, I mean that there is a degree of forth underneath the surface as some investors/funds have sought to bolster their performance particularly ahead of the October 31 fiscal year end for most mutual funds. Thus moves that seem innocuous can be padded in relative illiquid conditions. For instance, IPO Vera Bradley (VRA) closed just off of its high on Thursday but traded in a narrow band on Friday morning in failing to yield any ground. Upon breaching 25, the shares stretched to 26.75 within 20 minutes. A stock such as that of Acacia Research (ACTG) posted great earnings on Thursday night. The stock traded up about 3 ½ for the bulk of the day hanging out between 24.75 and 25.15 for quite some time. When the stock took out the high, it rallied 75 cents in about 10 minutes. Stocks such as BKD, RITT, SFUN, CMG, RVBD, CYT, and BUCY all had dramatic moves on Friday. The feature to look for when trading these things is consolidation near a high or a low particularly when news is featured. The way to trade them is to seek out said consolidation in the direction of the trend and look for a refreshing bid on the level II screen if looking to go long (and vice versa). Furthermore, make sure the consolidation is indeed quite narrow to protect yourself. But what sparks these things is the exaggeration of fear and greed. In a stock like ACTG which has a decent short interest, a few ticks to a near high on a relatively lazy Friday afternoon is enough to cause some day traders to scramble and the momentum feeds upon itself. The same is true for a VRA play in the morning as traders seek to get out to a good start. So, particularly in this week before mutual fund year-end with the market having risen a lot recently, be particularly ready for these specialized situations in which liquidity is not as present in making the relative illiquidity work for you- again with the stipulations described above.
Markets overnight were mixed in Asia with Tokyo down 0.3% but Hong Kong ahead 0.5%. In Europe, prices are definitively higher about ½% to ¾% across the board. The theme of the talk out of the G-20 over the weekend was ostensibly “there will be no currency war” which has shoved the dollar lower (below 81 yen now and solidly above 1.40 euros) with gold up over 20 dollars the ounce and bonds a bit higher as well. All of this has sparked a nice early rally in the futures. Existing Home Sales (4.25 million units) will be out at 10AM. There are a bevy of Fed speakers with Bernanke at 8:30, Dallas Fed at 10:30, Bullard at 1:30, Dudley at 4:30, and Hoenig at 10:00. For the day, with a number of notable upgrades and dollar weakness at the market’s back, it’d seem that the gains should hope if not build on themselves a little bit. Volume will likely be a little lighter than normal with an unexpected beautiful weather day set-up in the New York area. Focus on the myriad of stocks (particularly recent IPO’s) which closed at or near their highs on Friday, the casinos on the varied news within that sector, the ‘media’ stocks pumped up by newsletters and TV shows since Friday, and anything with relative weakness in the first hour or so after the opening bell.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
ACTG- closed near a high after posting good earnings
BKD- closed near a high after competitor Atria received a bid for its real estate assets
HMG- closed near a high
SFUN- closed near a high
NOG- closed near a high
TZOO- closed near a high
BORN- closed near a high
AUMN- closed near a high
CPHD- closed near a high after posting good earnings
AFOP- closed near a high after posting good earnings
FTNT- closed near a high after posting good earnings
INFA- closed near a high after posting good earnings
BIDU- closed near a high after posting good earnings
AMZN- closed near a high after posting good earnings
CMG- closed near a high after posting good earnings
RVBD- closed near a high after posting good earnings
BJRI- closed near a high after posting good earnings
FFIV- closed near a high amid positive buzz about the CTXS earnings
MOTR, MNRO- featured on “Mad Money” on Friday night
APSG- seeking strategic alternatives
APC- closed near a high amid rumors that Kosmos Energy may sell its stake in Ghana oil
Assets which would a price on what APC owns in the same venture
DRI- closed near a high on takeover rumors
EONC- closed near a high
XRS- closed near a high
MDF- recommended in Louis Navalier’s newsletter
CTV- confirmed it’s in discussions with CSL to be acquired for $31.50/share in cash
LDK- signed polysilicon agreement with BYD (a China-based company 10% owned by Berkshire Hathaway)
ROP- decent earnings
SOHU- good earnings
LMT- announced new $3 billion stock buyback plan
CYOU- decent earnings
PPD- exploring strategic options with private equity firms having offered $60/share as of this writing
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
CONN- closed near a low after it warned on earnings and announced rights offering
CYT- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
BUCY- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
GS- closed near a low
WYNN- filed common stock shelf registration
TDW- earnings warning
Earnings:
MON OCT 25 BEFORE
BYD CRNT LO
ROP RSH SOHU
MON OCT 25 AFTER
AMGN ATHR BEAV
COG DDR DRIV
EW IDTI MAS
MIPS PCL RGA
SLG SNV TXN
VECO VLTR VRTX
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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