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Thursday, February 18, 2010

THURS. FEB. 18- Watching Offerings

In the last few weeks, a number of major banks tested some critical levels. The two of note are Citicorp and Bank of America (BAC). A few months ago, both major banks issued significant amounts of stock. BAC issued shares at 15 even with C at 3.15. A lot of institutions (and the U.S. taxpayer in C’s case) put up a lot of money to own shares at those prices. Thus, it is important to many different entities from funds to the higher-ups in the U.S. government for the stocks to hold those prices. In the decline a few weeks ago, both stocks declined below the key benchmarks. C barely so in that it traded as low as 3.11 on Feb. 9 before closing at 3.18. BAC, however, got down to 14.25 that same trading session. What is notable albeit not totally surprising is that both stocks have been among the leaders in the stock market rally of the last week with shares of BAC up almost 8% from that low and C about 10%. It is critically important for the fragile nascent economic recovery that these levels continue to hold. Also, as day trading vehicles, realize that these two stocks in particular will remain very active for quite some time to come as the consortiums try to hold these two stocks up as well as the myriad of day traders who help to provide exactly what is needed- a very liquid market in shares of two of the most important banks on the planet.

Markets overnight were higher throughout the world with Tokyo up 0.3% and the European bourses up just shy of 0.5% on average. Oil is down slightly, the dollar is marginally weaker against the euro, and gold is down about 0.5% as well. Futures are quiet in trading around the flat line despite weak earnings from WMT and very strong PPI data. Look for trading to be slow overall today with an eye to the euro in case its decline accelerates. Otherwise, focus on the news-centric stocks and stay away from momentum trading for the most part as there is no real momentum either way right now.

Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

HPQ- good earnings

NTAP- great earnings

ADI- good earnings

PCLN- great earnings

CECO- decent earnings

HNZ- decent earnings guidance

AMAT- decent earnings

WFMI- closed near a high after posting great earnings

PACR- closed near a high after posting great earnings

UCTT- closed near a high after posting great earnings

PERY- closed near a high after posting great earnings

SWM- closed near a high

DGIT- closed near a high

MED- closed near a high

ITRI- decent earnings

YUII- closed near a high

DTG- closed near a high after posting earnings

LZB- closed near a high continuing an amazing run after posting great earnings

REGN- closed near a high

CLF- decent earnings

SKX- decent earnings

HRL- decent earnings

VDSI- good earnings

GT- decent earnings








Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

LVS- poor earnings

NVDA- poor earnings

AAP- terrible earnings

CAR- bad earnings

CHK- poor earnings

AEM- poor earnings

TRN- poor earnings

MASI- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

BWP- doing a 10 million unit offering

TEX- poor earnings

ORLY- poor earnings

WMT- poor earnings

ABX- poor earnings

NBL- poor earnings

WCG- terrible earnings

NXY- bad earnings

DAI- bad earnings

XNPT- receive negative letter from the FDA regarding its Horziant product






Earnings:

THURS FEB 18 BEFORE

ABX AEE APA

CAB DTV GT

HRL KEG LTM

NBL NDAQ NRG

NXY PDE PEG

RS SFY VTR

WCG WIN WMB

WMT

THURS FEB 18 AFTER

BUCY CBS DDR

FSLR IM INTU

JCOM NANO RRGB

WMGI WRE



Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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