The markets seemingly are at a crossroads. It is inevitably difficult to prognosticate stock prices, but there are times little signals can be given. However, there are two main things I have learned to seek over the years for the broader tape- the reaction of a market to news and the veracity of its move. Over the past three business days, the news particularly on the international front has been bad. The euro was indeed strong yesterday in particular despite nothing concrete out of Greece with the Greek to German 10 year bond yield spread widening. The Chinese did raise reserve requirements in a surprise move on Thursday night. Stocks like AMZN continue to trail the overall tape. Yet the markets have shaken everything off. Prices came right back on Friday afternoon and then were strong all day yesterday with every major market barometer up by over 1%. It shows the complete lack of reaction to bad news on the downside as everything was digested; when prices failed to keep going down, shorts rushed for cover and markets vacuumed higher. The one glaring issue which is what complicates the picture is the utter lack of volume on the move. For perspective, the two-day volume on the SPY on the recent down shove on February 4 and February 5 was the highest two-day total in a year with about 850 million shares traded. On Friday’s reversal today combined with yesterday, the SPY barely traded have of that over the two days with 473 million shares traded. Thus, the dilemma. Markets shook off the bad news rather convincingly yet did not do so in a convincing manner! For day traders, what it means is that as the markets rise, there has been less action because volume is not as great with opportunities more plentiful in a down move. Two vastly different environments and types of markets. So, for day trading purposes, do not focus on the macro- rather focus on the day at hand- and the trading environment in front of you as two dramatically different pictures are being painted right now intra-day.
Markets overseas were strong overnight with Tokyo up 2.7% and Hong Kong 1.3%. European bourses are higher by about 1% on average. Once again, commodities strength is there with oil and gold both ahead 0.5%. Futures are nicely higher once again with no major news out overnight. Coming off the best day for the markets in three months, there is no real reason to look for a major reversal of any sort. Markets will likely have an upside bias overall. With volumes somewhat slow, trade selectively particularly in the stocks/sectors in the news such as ags and fertilizers, foods, and techs.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
WFMI- great earnings
CSTR- good earnings guidance and ended lawsuit with Warner Home Videos
LZB- good earnings
MRH- decent earnings
APC- closed near a high after announcing a joint venture with Mitsui in Marcellus Shale
DGIT- closed near a high after posting earnings
MED- closed near a high
LPTH- closed near a high
RRC- closed near a high after positive EPA news over the weekend
ENT- closed near a high
JOYG, BUCY- closed near a high
X- closed near a high
FCX- closed near a high
GIVN- decent earnings
SNDK- upgraded by Morgan Stanley
DE- great earnings
XEC- good earnings
DVN- good earnings
RZ- received substantial U.S. Treasury grant
OMX-decent earnings
PFCB- decent earnings
BW- great earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
FTI- poor earnings
AMMD- poor earnings
VCLK- poor earnings
RICK- acquiring VCGH
VMI- atrocious earnings
ENOC- closed near a low
CML- closed near a low
WAG- acquiring Duane Reade stores; says will be dilutive in first year of acquisition
OC- poor earnings
Earnings:
WED FEB 17 BEFORE
DE DVN GENZ
HST IAG MSO
NFX OC OMX
PCLN RCI ROC
XEC
WED FEB 17 AFTER
AAP ADI AEM
CECO CHK CYH
FRT HPQ KGC
NTAP OII ORLY
SKX
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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