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Friday, February 19, 2010

FRI. FEB. 19- Hope and Trading

I have the honor and privilege to tuck my children in every night. The 10 minutes I spend alone with each of them in a quiet setting like that is literally my favorite time of the day. When I look back on my life once these kids are older, I already know that the 20 minute block of time with my two angels is something that I will miss immensely. In spending time with my youngest (18 month old Samara) last night, as she was so tired that she began falling asleep in my arms (after kissing me a kiss on my cheek, mind you), I could not help thinking of all of the hope I have for her and her big sister. Every parent's ultimate goal in life should be that their children do better than they did and I too hope that for Rayna and Samara. I hope they are happy. I hope they are healthy. I hope they don't struggle. I hope. Then, as I walked down the stairs to face some work that lay ahead of me, I realized that it was worth noting that from a macro standpoint, every trader should have hope. Hope for a good day. Hope to make a decent living. Hope to get the right plays and not get in the wrongs. Yet, once in a trade, there is absolutely no room for hope. All emotion goes out in the door once your position monitor shows one in a trade. The time to decide to stay in or get out occurs before the trade is even made in determining when one is wrong. This way if the trade does go bad, the trader should mechanically act. Hoping and wishing for a position moving against you to go back your way tends to result in disappointment. So, hope for all things good all the time...except when in a trade; at that point, let the stock dictate how you should act rather than your heart.

Markets overnight were hit hard in Asia in falling 2.1% in Japan and 2.6% in Hong Kong. In Europe, things are more stable with the bourses down merely ¼% on average. The dollar was much stronger, but that strength is waning as we get closer to the open. Oil and gold are both off just shy of 1%, but off their lows. Bonds are flat. Futures are weaker, but they too are off their lows. Yesterday after the close, the Fed announced they are raising the discount rate from ½% to ¾%. The discount rate as most of you likely know is the interest rate a central bank charges depository entities such as banks which borrow reserves from it. So, the raise makes a little more costly for banks to borrow money from the Feds. The move was widely expected, but perhaps not now. Thus, the reaction has been muted. For the day, look for an attempt to rally as the news will likely be digested positively in that it signals the beginning of the draining of excess liquidity and a return to more normalcy. Trade will likely be quiet overall, but there will be some opportunities this morning. Focus on financials, solars, and big caps.


02192010Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

VHC- closed near a high

CLF- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CECO- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CHK- closed near a high after posting good earnings

AMZN, IBM- closed near a high

INTU- good earnings

RRGB- decent earnings

HITT- good earnings

FSYS- good earnings outlook

HUN- good earnings

JCP- decent earnings

BAM- decent earnings








Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

CLW- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings

UNIS- closed near a low

TRMA- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings

CAR- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings

XNPT- closed near a low after a failed drug

WCG- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings

DELL- poor earnings

FSLR- poor earnings

CBS- poor earnings

IM- poor earnings

JCOM- poor earnings

NANO- terrible earnings

LOPE- poor earnings

MMSI- poor earnings

APOL- warned on earnings outlook

CSIQ- warned on earnings outlook

SLXP- FDA released briefing documents for panel on SLXP’s Xifaxan in which findings were difficult to interpret








Earnings:

FRI FEB 19 BEFORE

AGP APL BAM

HUN JCP PCG

PNW TASR




Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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