There are literally new things every day when it comes to trading which affect stock prices. Yesterday was a new one: the Massachusetts Senate race. Yes, the battle to take over the seat of the deceased Ted Kennedy had a direct impact on the stock market. As of last night, the Democrats controlled 58 seats in the Senate with two more Independents tending to cause with the Democrats. The 60 seat supermajority has been seen as important because it puts legislative items such as cloture at the disposal of the Democrats; cloture for those not immersed in politics allows for the end of debate in a legislative body, i.e. ending the filibustering process. Furthermore, while 51 seats clearly is needed for a vote to pass and be sent to a president, a Republican win by Scott Brown- in a race he polled 30 points behind Democrat Martha Coakley merely a few months ago is not good for the Democrats. The reason for this is quite simple: if my policies are clearly being viewed as unpopular and my party rules Congress and there are elections in the House in particular later this year, I may just think twice about trying to implement in some policies into law which are clearly being mandated as unpopular. Furthermore, gridlock is the scenario that the markets have historically enjoyed- particularly now. Thus, markets rallied yesterday as policies seen as negative for Wall Street much less Main Street would stand less of a chance of passing with such a major upset in Massachusetts. Indeed, stocks in such industries as the health care sector led the way yesterday as healthcare reform would stand less of a chance of passing with a Brown win. So, keep your eyes on this situation as things can rapidly change (i.e. jamming through health care reform immediately), but also realize that something seemingly innocuous as one unusually-timed Senate race can have a major impact on world markets.
markets in Asia were down overnight with Tokyo off fractionally, but Hong Kong down almost 2% and China 3% as the Chinese government issued a dictum to banks to tighten lending practices. In Europe, markets are off about 1/3%-1/2% across the board. Bonds are flat, but the euro is very weak amid worries in Greece. Futures are down overall state-side on the Chinese worries. Earnings are mixed. Overall, look for a downside day and a very busy one at that although most of the best action has likely already occurred by the time you read this. Focus on the stocks in the news (and understand the earnings flow)along with the sectors with the most earningsout today such as the banks.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
RMBS- singed major deal with Samsung in settling all litigation, receiving $200 million immediately, $500 million over next five years, and Samsung is investing $200 million in RMBS stock
CREE- great earnings
SSYS- closed near a high after announcing a major deal with HPQ
EVVV- closed near a high after being upgraded by JP Morgan
WPZ- closed near a high after its sister, WMB, announced restructuring
AAPL- closed near a high
MMR- closed near a high after posting decent earnings
X- closed near a high after a brokerage upgrade
ALN- closed near a high after receiving product placement space in two major Chinese supermarkets
SPU- closed near a high after boosting earnings guidance
GRMN- closed near a high on vague takeover rumors
MNTA- closed near a high
AMED- closed near a high
HUM- closed near a high in a strong healthcare sector
INTC, CBE, TLVT- mentioned positively on “Mad Money” last night
LXRX- announced phase 2 trial of LX4211 demonstrated significant improvement in type 2 diabetic patients
IOC- confirmed indication of oil at Antelope-2 in Papua new Guinea
ASML- decent earnings
EAT- good earnings
JEF- good earnings
LAB- good earnings
NTRS- good earnings
WFC- decent earnings
BK- decent earnings
USB- decent earnings
STT- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
IBM- beat earnings, but there were worries about revenue quality of numbers
CSX- poor earnings
AMAG- filed to sell three million shares of stock
SCHW- missed earnings estimate and doing share offering
MED- closed near a low on continued worries about the federal probe into the company
ITMN- offering five million shares
PPDI- poor earnings guidance
MU- DRAM business compromised by resources of Samsung and RMBS
BAC- poor earnings
COH- bad earnings
MS- beat earnings, but missed revenues
Earnings:
WED JAN 20 BEFORE
ADTN AMR ASML
BAC BK COH
COV EAT HCBK
JEF LAB MI
MS MTB NTRS
PGR RDY STT
USB WFC
WED JAN 20 AFTER
DOX EBAY FFIV
KMP SBUX SLM
STX SWKS TSS
XLNX
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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