There was a trifecta of issues yesterday which led to the steepest declines in the U.S. stock market in the last couple of months. The main culprit was once again China. Following up on last week’s blog piece, the Chinese government moved to encourage a curbing of lending which sparked fears of a slowing global economic recovery. Liu Mingkang, the chief banking regulator in China, noted that some banks were requested to halt loans after a record output of loans occurred in 2009 in China. This helped to stoke fears that not only is some of the growth in China illusory (i.e. bad loans), but that said growth could not help spark the engine of the world’s economy. The 2nd piece of bad news – also discussed in a blog piece a couple of weeks ago- was more trouble in Greece. Greek bonds tumbled; in fact, the premium of Greek 10-year bonds over 10-year German bonds widened to almost 300 basis points which is the widest gap since the inception of the euro more than decade ago. It did not help that European Commission President Jose Barroso note that the Greek economy is at a “delicate moment” with the Greek budget deficit at almost 13% of gross domestic product which is more than three times the limit for euro members. In turn, this caused the euro currency to fall world-wide which led to falling commodity prices, weaker European stock prices, and of course weaker stocks domestically. The final event was the earnings. Notable was the fact that companies like WFC, BAC, and MS beat on their earnings, but missed on top-line revenues. This indicates that much of the earnings growth has been manufactured rather than garnered organically via a rise in revenues (more on this in a future blog post). And oh by the way, turns out that newly-elected Senator Brown doesn’t like healthcare in its present form because of the system in place in his state, but is not necessarily opposed to some sort of plan (and was featured nude in “Cosmopolitan” in June 1982- something that his opponent Martha Coakley failed to denote in her inept campaign). The notable take from this piece is that for once all three major worries are relevant: the Chinese wants to slow their economic growth, the Greek situation is worsening, and revenues just aren’t growing domestically. So, monitor these three themes for the next few days and weeks because when they all come together one way or another, they will impact the broader markets.
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight with Tokyo up 1.2% and Hong Kong down 2% on China worries. European markets are up ¼% to ½% across the board. The euro is weaker again with gold and oil down slightly. A very busy morning and day ahead. Earnings are being viewed seemingly randomly; EBAY had great earnings and is sharply higher yet GS had great earnings and is barely up as of this writing. Very news-centric so be well-acquainted with the earnings data if you wish to trade those stocks otherwise there likely won’t be a lot to do today.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
EBAY- great earnings
FFIV- decent earnings
SBUX- good earnings
STX- great earnings; WDC, MRVL, and EMC may move with it
DOX- decent earnings
PLXS- good earnings
PNRA- great earnings guidance
RMBS- closed near a high after a slew of positive developments with Samsung
IOC- closed near a high after issuing positive well data
CREE- closed near a high after posting great earnings
BK, STT- closed near highs after posting good earnings
RS- closed near a high after issuing positive earnings guidance
JAZZ- closed near a high after boosting earnings guidance
CETV- sold its Ukrainian operations for $300 million which sparked a sharp rally in closing near a high
DEAR- good earnings and announced it was significantly over the minimum federal capitalization threshold which caused the stock to rally big-time
HCBK- on “Mad Money” last night
CAL- decent earnings
ETR- decent earnings
NITE- good earnings
PNC- decent earnings
FITB- decent earnings
XRX- decent earnings
FCS- decent earnings
ESI- great earnings
FCX- great earnings
GS- great earnings
UNP- decent earnings
APH- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
SWKS- poor earnings
XLNX- poor earnings
KMP- lukewarm earnings
TSS- terrible earnings
TNDM- closed near a low after cutting revenue view intra-day yesterday
SVA- share offering
CYH- closed near low
ISPH- phase 3 trial of Prolacria dry eye did not meet primary endpoint
LM- bad earnings
PCP- bad earnings
Earnings:
THURS JAN 21 BEFORE
APH AUO
CAL CMA ED
ESI FCS FITB
GS KEY LM
LUV MDP MTG
NITE ORI PCP
PFG PNC UNH
UNP XRX
THURS JAN 21 AFTER
AMD AXP CBST
COF ELX GOOG
IBKR IGT ISRG
MSCC PBCT SIVB
SYNA WDC
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
Erik Kolodny Brendan Byrne Epiphany Day Trading Direct Access Level II NYSE ARCA NASDAQ FINRA STOCKS DOW S&P INDEX FOREX FUTURES CNBC Bloomberg Team Velez VCM avatar Lightspeed Hold Swiftrade Reminiscence Stock Operator GOLDMAN Sachs Merrill Cantor Fitzgerald Spear Leeds
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