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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

TUES. JAN. 19- Checking Yourself

During my many years trading, I have sadly bared witness to many individuals blowing their stock account up. Usually, this is due to various things from refusing to exit stocks that were going against them to doubling down in bad positions to being entirely unprepared for work to increasing trade size when things weren’t going well in an effort to get it all back. On an intra-day basis, I have one solution. It sounds so simple, but so hard to do at the time yet has likely saved me from turning bad days to unfathomably horrible sessions. The seemingly simple advice: well, it’s not to just stop trading at random, but to have a set number at which you will stop- no matter what- and here’s the tricky part- stick to the number! See, when things go really wrong, they tend to snowball rapidly. A good friend of mine once told me that it is so much easier to destroy things than to build them up; the north and south towers of the World Trade Center complex took five years to build, but were destroyed in one horrible morning in a matter of a couple of hours. Sorry for the terrible analogy, but I am really trying to drive home a point: what can take several months and even years to earn can be lost in a matter of hours. Thus, if you mentally pretend your account is at zero at your mental stop loss number, you cannot lose any more than that number. No trader can only have good days; it is however a matter of making the best of the bad days by containing financial damage which builds staying power of the finest traders.


Markets in Asia were down Monday morning about 1% with Europe up about 0.5% on merger news. Last night, Hong Kong recouped most of Monday’s losses while Tokyo was down another 1% on news of the imminent bankruptcy filing of Japan Airlines. Prices in Europe are giving back a chunk of the ground earned on Monday. Gold is up slightly, oil down slightly, and the dollar is notably stronger against the euro. Futures are marginally higher. As earnings season kicks into gear, news flow is notably up but the markets are churning. Look for a choppy session off of Friday’s weakness, but a slight upside bias. Focus on the companies with earnings as well as the microcaps.

Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

PFSW- closed near a high after launching an eStore with Procter & Gamble

IDC- closed near a high after announcing it was looking at strategic options

CPY- closed near a high

LEAP- closed near a high

TRA- closed near a high after CF withdrew takeover offer

CCME- closed near a high

MAPP- closed near a high

ASPS- mentioned on “Mad Money” Friday night

TYC, CFL- TYC buying CFL for 42.50 in cash

ADG- being acquired for 7.25 in cash

GNVC- announced collaboration agreement with NVS

X- upgraded by Deutsche Bank

CIEN- upgraded by Credit Suisse

PH- great earnings

NLST- granted two additional hypercloud technology patents

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

CF- island reversal in closing near a low after withdrawing offer for TRA

AGU- closed near a low as it may actually look to buy CF

AAPL, AMZN- closed near lows

MON- closed near a low

BIDU- chief technology officer resigned

EDU- poor earnings

AMTD- poor earnings

KFT- raised bid for Cadbury

Earnings:

TUES JAN 19 BEFORE

AMTD C EDU

FAST FHN FRX

MMR PH

TUES JAN 19 AFTER

CREE CSX IBM

PPDI



Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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