On Thursday, I wrote a blog post about the recent Arkansas earthquake as well as the potential implications if a more serious one were to occur. What I neglected to mention is that I had wanted to do it for a week but was embarrassed to mention in the context of this space what made me write that piece on that day. I read an article about the Supermoon. Yes. There is such a thing. A Supermoon for those who don’t know is either a new or full moon that occurs when the moon happens to be 90% ore more of its closest approach to Earth. Basically, the moon is normally about 251,000 miles away from Earth, but will only be about 221,500 miles away. This means there could well be more lunar gravity on the planet. Because of this, there can be storms which are abnormal as the tides are stirred up and yes, tectonic plates can be affected which theoretically increases the chances for earthquakes by augment pressure on weak spots. It occurs approximately once every 18 years. Now, scientific evidence over time has indicated that there is not a higher likelihood of a natural disasters…but of course the closer the position to Earth, the more that astrologers out there who are freaking many people out right now will be right- as evidenced by the devastating earthquake in Japan on Friday. Thus, if this whole Supermoon concept catches on, it could be a very interesting next few days if anything else happens anywhere as people begin to pay more and more attention to this phenomenon. Because of that (and the fact it’s an options expiration week) with options expiration Friday occurring one day ahead of the Supermoon due to occur on Saturday (the 19th), there could well be more volatility this week than normal due to a combination of reacting to the disaster but also because of pure “what happens next” fear.
The Nikkei fell very hard overnight with prices down over 6%. It’s actually a bit worse than that because the broader tape was down more and many stocks didn’t even open. The likes of Hitachi and Toshiba plunged over 15%. The story is more muted in the rest of the world with Hong Kong up fractionally and prices down only 0.1% in London and about 0.5% in Frankfurt. Also, notably, markets in places like Abu Dhabi had their sharpest one day gains in over a year on Sunday after the Day of Rage failed to materialize in Saudi Arabia. Bonds are down slightly, oil down 2% (under $100/barrel), and gold up slightly. There’s no economic data today. Futures are down in wiping out Friday’s gains amid concerns about nuclear issues in Japan. There’s a lot to take in today so look for a very choppy session with prices not straying too far from up or down as softening oil fights off the Japan issue. The focus will be on the solars, uranium stocks, small bio techs, big cap tech in the news, materials, and commodities. Also, obviously, keep an eye on the news ticker for anything coming out of Japan or the Middle East.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
CIGX- closed near a high as six patent claims were confirmed
AIRM- closed near a high after posting earnings
PRMW- closed near a high after posting earnings
BIDU- closed near a high
AAPL- closed near a high
NFLX- closed near a high
YOKU- closed on a high
CLF- closed near a high
X- closed near a high
JOYG- closed near a high
CBG- closed near a high
STP, YGE, FSLR, LDK, JASO, SPWRA- thought of as viable alternatives to nuclear power for possible rebuild in Japan
EBIX- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
MED- closed near a low after delaying quarterly results
FSR- closed near a low amid worries of triggering of a significant amount of catastrophe bonds
FSIN- warned on earnings outlook
POWR- closed near a low after issuing poor earnings
CHBT- closed near a low
DNN, URRE, UEC, CCJ, URG- uranium names hit hard this morning on worries of a slackening in demand
TNDM- poor earnings
Earnings:
MON MAR 14 BEFORE
EBIX TNDM
MON MAR 14 AFTER
ZAGG
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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