FRI. MAR. 11 - Never Give Up. Never Ever Give Up.

For those who have not seen this speech, do yourself a favor and see it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuoVM9nm42E

The speech was given by the former basketball coach at N.C.State- Jim Valvano. Valvano gave this speech on March 3, 1993 and sadly died less than seven weeks later in losing his battle with terminal bone cancer. I literally tear up every time I see this speech as it is one of the most inspirational monologues that has been given in the history of humankind. And by the way, that is an indisputable fact- not an opinion. Hopefully, everyone has indeed seen it, but if not, the entire theme of the speech is “Never Give Up. Never Ever Give Up.” This of course is a life lesson and should be taken that way. But it applies to trading without question. It never ceases to amaze me- particularly on days like yesterday- when someone loses a little money and just…stops trading. Not a lot. A little. Or worse yet, they keep trading, but they do things like add to losing positions or get away from their discipline and methodology. Environments such as the one we are in are indeed ripe with peril- but for the optimistic like me- they are ripe with opportunity. There are certainly going to be some days that no matter what you do, it won’t work. I know it sadly from experience and have written a recent blog post about it. But much more often than not (thankfully), that is not the case. Thus if you dig yourself a hole early particularly when the markets are frantically active, follow Valvano’s advice in getting right back on the horse and attempting to fight with everything you have.

Markets overnight in Asia were lower (Tokyo by 1.7%) but futures there indicated a decline of as much as 5% when their markets reopen on Monday (although futures are off of their lows). European bourses are down across the board as well from 0.3% to 0.8% across the continent. Oil is getting crushed to the tune of 3% with old down marginally. The dollar is a little weaker. Futures are down a little but well off of their late night lows. Retail sales came in ostensibly in-line, Michigan Sentiment (76.5) is due out at 9:55AM, and Business Inventories (0.8%) are due out at 10AM. Stocks today will likely be very choppy with eyes toward the earthquake situation and Saudi Arabia. There will likely be a little selling pressure just after the open…if it is not fierce (low volume), look for a little short covering on the weakness in oil. But again, it’s going to be extraordinarily headline driven today. The focus will likely be on earthquake plays (such as TAYD), financials in the news (AIG), earnings particularly in the retail sector (ANN), and commodities/materials particularly from a relative strength basis (CLF).

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

CLNE- decent earnings

CMTL- decent earnings

HEV- good earnings

EBS- decent earnings

PLL- good earnings

AIG- offered $15.7 billion to buy large subprime portfolio from NY Fed

BLTI- closed near a high after posting earnings

PRMW- closed near a high after posting earnings

GMCR- closed near a high after forming a deal with SBUX

HGSI- closed near a high after the FDA OK’ed its lupus treatment

SAFM- closed near a high

AUTC- closed near a high

RCRC- received acquisition offer from Tomy for $27.90/share in cash

VLO- purchasing CVX’s Pembroke refinery along with some assets in the UK and Ireland

ANN- decent earnings

TAYD- likely reacting to Japanese earthquake as it produces shock absorption, rate control, and energy storage devices used in machinery and structures

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

ARO- poor earnings

ZUMZ- poor earnings

REGN- poor phase III Vital trial results

THO- poor earnings

ENER- indicated that changes to solar incentives in France and Italy have impacted its business

SWHC- poor earnings

CSIQ- closed near a low after posting bad earnings

FXEN- closed near a low after announcing a share offering

GS- closed near a low

CLF- closed near a low

MEE- closed near a low

BTU- closed near a low

ANR- closed near a low

HES- closed near a low

NAK- closed near a low

NOG- closed near a low

MOS- closed near a low

WLT- closed near a low

RIG- closed near a low

LVS, WYNN- closed near a low

Earnings:

FRI MAR 11 BEFORE

ANN CTRN HIBB


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President