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Monday, February 21, 2011

TUES. FEB. 22- Right Or Wrong, I'm Nervous

Sunday, February 20, 2011 10:36 AM
From: This sender is DomainKeys verified"ekolodny2@yahoo.com"

I used to love love love love love Saturday morning cartoons and really good sitcoms when I was younger. One of the frequent comedic guises used on the cartoons (as well as in countless sitcoms) occurs when the protagonist gathers his/her friends (aka "troops") in leading some in some hair-brained scheme. They are all in it together. And the next scene shows the one or two leaders...with nobody behind them as they talk to themselves all gung-ho about whatever it is they were gonna do. That's what Friday's tape in particular (although it's happened a couple other times as well in recent days) felt like. The Dow marched ahead 75 points but the NASDAQ and S&P 500 struggled to close positive. Apple (AAPL) was weak for a 2nd day and many other sectors performed badly (anyone notice Freeport McMoran - FCX- closed near its 2011 low?). When the generals are there but the troops don't follow in a bull market, that historically portends some sort of change whether it be sector rotation or a pullback. I discussed this on Friday afternoon on our video in indicating I was looking for an immediate-term pullback and I write this now on a Sunday morning as I watch scenes of unrest in Libya- an oil producing nation. Libya is not Egypt. So, definitely keep your eyes peeled for what it is almost certain to be a different kind of market for the next few weeks particularly in individualized names and sectors with a definitive pick-up in volatility.

Markets have been hit very hard the last couple of days throughout the world with 2-4% declines commonplace throughout the world. The dollar has been amazingly placid but gold prices have rallied along with bonds and light sweet crude has soared several dollars a barrel. Case-Shiller (-2.4%) is due out at 9AM with Consumer Confidence (67.0) due out at 10AM. The main culprit the last few days has been a major uprising in Libya (more on this in tomorrow’s blog). There is now wholesale worry that the crisis is going to spread throughout the Middle East. Futures are sharply lower (although a bit off of their lows). For today, with some traders out, look for a volatile session on slightly lower than normal levels of activity with a focus on energies, earnings plays, small cap biotechs in the news, big cap tech in the news, and relative strength plays.

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

RRGB- closed near a high after posting earnings

INTU- closed near a high after posting earnings

ARUN- closed near a high after posting earnings

APEI- closed near a high after posting earnings

ASGN- closed near a high after posting earnings

ALNY- closed near a high after posting earnings

MMSI- closed near a high after posting earnings

IT- closed near a high after doing a secondary offering

PDCO- closed near a high after posting earnings in an island reversal

SGI, IRDM- featured on “Mad Money” on Friday night

ATHN- announced alliance with MSFT

CHK- selling $4.75 billion n shale assets to BHP

HD- decent earnings

TSL- decent earnings

VFC- decent earnings

M- decent earnings

SIGA- commenced new smallpox antiviral procurement


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

AAPL- closed near a low amid iPhone margin pressures and worries over the health of Steve Jobs

RST- closed near a low after posting earnings

CF- closed near a low after posting earnings

CKH- closed near a low after posting earnings

TA- closed near a low after posting earnings

BCSI- closed near a low after posting earnings

GHL- closed near a low after a brokerage cut

POT, MOS, MON- closed near their lows

FCX- closed near a low

MEE- closed near a low

AMZN- closed near a low

BIDU- closed near a low

MCP- closed near a low

HOC- closed near a low

PANL- closed near a low

SVVS- closed near a low

VECO- closed near a low

HOLI- closed near a low

FTO- to be acquired for .4811 shares of HOC

DYN- announced termination of merger agreement with Icahn Enterprises; top officers and directors to resign

DCTH- received refusal to file letter from FDA

JASO- poor earnings

MDT- poor earnings

WMT- poor earnings

FRX- to buy CLDA for $30/cash plus contingent consideration of up to $6/share

BKS- poor earnings

AMED- poor earnings

NFLX- AMZN quietly rolled out instant video streaming service according to SAI


Earnings:

TUES FEB 22 BEFORE

AMED BKS EXPD

FST GPC HD

HK JASO M

MDT MHS ODP

RRD TSL TX

VFC WMT

TUES FEB 22 AFTER

CBI CHK EXEL

HLF HPQ HTZ

LEAP MHK ONXX

RSH STR TXRH

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

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