I am by no means a wine expert. I like wines (red more so than white). But I certainly am no sommelier; I admire anyone who is. I just know what I like and what I don’t. But the study of what is truly a good wine is certainly left to people who know far more about it- I just trust them (particularly when they are friends of mine!). I would certainly imagine that as time progresses, a sommelier doesn’t exactly become a wine snob per se but would become much more discerning about what he/she likes. And that’ll be true now as compared to a year ago compared to a year from now compared to 10 years now…with time comes more selectivity. As I seemingly age two days for every one that passes (at least it feels that way sometimes!), I find that I too become increasingly selective when it comes to my trades. I am fairly certain it has something to do with the market we’re in, i.e. one that is not very volatile. But there’s more to it than that. When I started, I’d do about anything. I was eager and how else was I going to learn if I didn’t at least try to do everything I saw? Several years ago, I would pare down that activity to doing the ones I really liked with big size and the ones that were blasé’ with smaller size. But now? I increasingly possess patience when I see a prospective trade in stocks that have moved in a 15 cent range for an hour (with the market not moving) or something that has rapidly moved already in avoiding those plays. I also tend to avoid momentum trades in things that have already moved. For instance, it is much easier for me to buy a stock like Apache (APA) when they miss their earnings estimate through unchanged in an effort to capture a short covering stampede than it is for me to buy it after it rallied 75 cents in four minutes, consolidates, and looks primed to go more. I find that the raw emotion of the first trade is often not present on a momentum play when the market is not whipping around intra-day. So, this is why I stress the importance of understanding news and what it can to a stock (particularly early on) as well as in trying to do only the great plays. I find that as I become more discerning, I may make fewer plays, but the gains from doing the ones I love in even bigger size actually has had a very notable impact on my quality of trading- and overall trading performance.
Markets in Asia generally higher overnight with Tokyo up fractionally but Hong Kong up 1.2%. Everything else though is very quiet. London is down 0.4% but Frankfurt and Paris are near unchanged. Gold, oil, bonds, and the dollar are straddling the unchanged level. Shocker- futures are basically…unchanged. There is no economic news today. It’s an options expiration day as well on a Friday before a holiday so I expect it to remain much quieter than normal. All of the action will likely take place in the early part of the day with a handful of news plays moving in the middle of the day and potentially some volume on the close because of the expiry. The focus will be on the earnings plays, solars off of SPWRA news, fertilizers with CF having reported, big cap techs in the news, and the earnings play from yesterday with extraordinary performance (WTW, et al) for continued movement.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
CSTR- closed near a high amid rumors it could partner with AMZN for movie streaming
IO- closed near a high after posting good earnings
TYPE- closed near a high after posting good earnings
FICO- closed near a high after posting good earnings
NVDA- closed near a high after posting good earnings
HDNG- closed near a high after posting good earnings
WTW- soared in closing near a high after posting amazing earnings
TBL- soared in closing near a high after posting amazing earnings
TDSC- soared in closing near a high after posting amazing earnings
INPH- closed near a high
NANO- closed near a high
CPY- closed near a high
RIG- closed near a high
MSB- closed near a high
RIMM- closed near a high
INTU- decent earnings
MOH- decent earnings
BRCD- decent earnings
SPWRA- decent earnings
RRGB- decent earnings
NR- decent earnings
DNDN- positive Provenge study presented at a cancer symposium
ARUN- good earnings
GSM- closed near a high
DECK- closed near a high
XPL- closed near a high
AGN- featured on “Mad Money” last night
YGE- decent earnings
AGP- decent earnings
YTEC- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
GMCR- closed near a low amid rumors it will not form a partnership deal with SBUX
ORLY- closed near a low after posting earnings
AEM- closed near a low after posting earnings
BCSI- poor earnings
BMRN- poor earnings
CHTP- share offering
ATHN- poor earnings
CF- poor earnings
CPB- poor earnings
ST- 20 million share offering at 33.15
PDCO- poor earnings
Earnings:
FRI FEB 18 BEFORE
AGP CPB CPN
EGO PNW TA
UPL YGE
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
No comments:
Post a Comment