I heard repeated refrains yesterday regarding light volume. This should not have been a surprise to anyone. Ostensibly, the eyes of every trader through Wednesday afternoon will not be in their normal places. First, we’re entering the heart of earnings season at this point so every trader no matter his/her style of trading should be keeping up with the earnings flow at this point in watching how the market is reacting to results much less understanding results. Second, a two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting starts today. There’s not supposed to be anything dramatic that will occur from the meeting other than potentially some heated discussions but we won’t know for sure until tomorrow. But the main feature is tonight’s State of the Union speech. It’s mildly amusing to me year-in year-out that the markets tend to be relatively quiet just in case something of consequence that is unexpected comes out- when in fact we know most of the text ahead of time. As recently as Saturday, President Obama indicated he’d utilize the State of the Union address to ask both political parties to spark U.S. growth with a focus on job creation. He also plans to address the major issues of budget deficits and national debt in trying to strike a balance between cutting spending but not deterring gradual economic recovery. Obama likely will also touch upon the measures already in place from an extension of the tax cuts to $100 billion in government spending cuts called for by Republicans. The appointment of GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt as Obama’s top outside economic counselor in an effort to improve relations between Washington and big business likely will be discussed as well with a focus on innovation. So, certainly watch the details of the State of the Union as they leak today, monitor anything strange out of the Fed, and certainly note all of the earnings that come out…but don’t expect exaggerated movements for the broader tape from any of it barring a huge surprise. More importantly, expect a calm trading session which allows one to truly hone in on opportunities among the earnings entities. By the same token, don’t try to make something out of nothing assuming it does quiet later and be on standby for the unlikely event of an unexpected headline for these next couple of days.
Markets overnight were mixed again. Tokyo was up 1% but Hong Kong down 0.1%. London is down 0.3% but Frankfurt up 0.2%. What is notable is that oil and gold are both down 1.5% with the dollar stronger across the board- particularly against the British pound. Case-Shiller 20-city Index (-1.5%) is out at 9AM, Consumer Confidence (53.5) and FHFA Housing Index at 10AM. Futures are weaker across the board on earnings flow. Look for a relatively quiet session today with a lot of choppiness and much movement among the earnings plays. The focus will be on the myriad of earnings out, any stock in the news (AIG), relative strength and weakness in a placid tape, and the rare earths.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
MCP- closed near a high after announcing a convertible stock sale but approval of phase II expansion at Mountain Pass
CLDA- closed near a high after getting FDA approval for Viibryd
CHBT- closed near a high after providing revenue guidance
NVDA- closed near a high after a positive mention in “Barron’s”
IBM- closed near a high
AAPL- closed near a high
JCP- closed near a high after announcing Bill Ackman will be on its board and it will be closing some stores as well
FSLR- closed near a high after receiving favorable coverage at Goldman Sachs
OCCF- closed near a high after posting good earnings
WG- closed near a high after a brokerage upgrade and announcing a new contract
CSX- decent earnings
ALB- decent earnings
PTX- closed near a high
CNR- closed near a high
DSCI- closed near a high
SWKS- featured on “Mad Money” last night
RLI- good earnings
ETH- decent earnings
BHI- decent earnings
BLK- decent earnings
RF- decent earnings
TRV- decent earnings
BTU- decent earnings
KMB- decent earnings
AIG- CEO’s cancer apparently is getting better
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
FFIV- closed near a low
WHX- closed near a low after Citron Research warned that the stock will disappear
RSH- closed near a low after issuing poor earnings guidance and announcing retirement of CEO
AXP- poor earnings
VMW- poor earnings guidance
TXN- poor earnings
VLTR- poor earnings
PKG- poor earnings
MCOX- closed near a low
HDY- announced termination of a letter of intent with a ‘large independent oil and gas company’
COH- poor earnings
MMM- poor earnings
TLAB- poor earnings
VZ- poor earnings
X- poor earnings
JNJ- poor earnings
GWW- poor earnings
Earnings:
TUES JAN 25 BEFORE
AKS ASH BHI
BLK BTU CNI
COH DD DGX
EAT EMC GLW
GWW HOG JNJ
KEY KMB MMM
RF RYN SHW
TLAB TRV VZ
WAT WFT X
TUES JAN 25 AFTER
ALTR BXP CA
DOX DV ELY
EWBC FTNT GILD
JNPR MIPS MOLX
NSC RFMD SYK
TSS YHOO
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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