Last Thursday, I had a relatively unique horrible experience in a trade. Following Google (GOOG) reporting fantastic earnings, I saw a headline cross in which the company announced that current CEO Eric Schmidt was going to step down. I immediately shorted the stock. In 37 seconds, I had an unrealized profit of about nine points on my shares. GOOG then had its first significant uptick in that time (30 cents or so). I went to cover it in attempting to place an order two points or so above prevailing prices as it was whipping around obviously ferociously fast. My order went in and I should have been filled for a profit of about 7 1/2 to 8 points. But I never got a fill back. It took me about 10 seconds to realize my order had gone in at 523 rather than 623 through an incorrect order entry by yours truly. By the time I understood my mistake and exited, I ended up covering for a profit of 4 cents a share. Yup, in a 56 second snippet, I had a nine point profit in something reduced to four cents. That same afternoon, I received an e-mail from a good friend who told me he'd traded badly that day because he missed a point plus winner earlier that day. All of this set my head to swimming. I realized three things that I wouldn't have recognized a few years ago and I feel they are all worth sharing. First, the feeling I'd have had if I'd have been down nine points and earned four cents a share would have been 180 degrees opposite than what I felt that afternoon. But numbers don't lie- either way, it's a four cent profit. I could feel however I wanted, but nothing was going to change. Second, I knew I better not let it fester. If I tried to recoup the unrealized profit rapidly, all I'd do is make the mistake my friend made in remaining angry rather than truly preparing which could only result in losses. Finally, after 30 minutes of thinking, I realized there was only one true thing to do- focus on doing what I had been doing and stop obsessing about the very costly mistake. I then made a day's pay from 5PM to 6:45PM on top of the decent four figure day I already had as it was earnings season with plentiful opportunities once again showing the urgency of trading during busy times. I then had another great trading day Friday by simply doing what I did to put myself in position to have a nice profit in GOOG from my first trade after GE reported at 6:30AM to my last decent one during "Mad Money." Thus, the name of the game after a terrible experience is to focus on what has been working rather than on a mistake you cannot change. The best and only way to correct it is of course to, well, trade effectively immediately thereafter much less into perpetuity. If what you're doing works, realize net-net it will keep working and you will walk out of the office with an income rather than walking out poorer and with anger at something that cannot be changed.
Markets throughout the world were mixed overnight. Tokyo closed up 0.7% but Hong Kong was down 0.3%. London is ahead 0.3% but Frankfurt is off 0.5%. Gold is up 0.5% with the dollar mixed as well- up against the yen but weaker against the euro. Futures are mildly positive. The tone last week was not great; the Dow outperformed all indexes. News flow is also mixed with no economic data and a small pause in the earnings flow. Look for a relatively quiet session with a lot of individualized moves. The focus will likely be on biotechs in the news (CLDA), earnings plays (MCD), stocks in media publications such as “Barron’s”(NVDA and REE), and any relative strength/weakness plays.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
CLDA- Viibryd received approval from the FDA
VC- closed at a high amid a big buy imbalance
MOBI- closed near a high
MSHL- closed near a high
COF- closed near a high after posting earnings
TPX- closed near a high after posting earnings
WMG- closed near a high after putting itself up for sale
NVDA- positive mention in “Barron’s” over the weekend
FSLR- raised to ‘conviction buy’ by Goldman Sachs
SLE- said to receive takeover bid from Apollo Group
SSCC- received $35/share takeover bid from RKT ($17.50/share in cash and .30605 shares of RKT)
GXDX- to be acquired by NVS for $25/share in cash
JCP- named William Ackman and Steven Roth to board of directors and closing underperforming stores
OCCF- good earnings
MCD- decent earnings
SILC- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
WWE- earnings warning
WLT- closed near a low
AMBO- closed near a low
TRAK- closed near a low
NETC- closed near a low
CHBT- closed near a low
CYN- closed near a low after posting earnings
AKAM- closed near a low
GOOG- closed near a low in a major reversal after posting earnings
AAPL- closed near a low
AMZN- closed near a low
SLB- closed near a low after posting earnings
VVUS- closed near a low after the FDA noted it is seeking more birth defect data on Qnexa
FCX- closed near a low
JOYG- closed near a low
POT- VALE noted that a rumor of I buying a huge fertilizer firm is totally unfounded
MCP- closed near a low
REE- negative mention in “Barron’s” over the weekend
CRM- negative mention in “Barron’s” over the weekend
RSH- CEO retired and warned on earnings
STLD- poor earnings
FLS- poor earnings
Earnings:
MON JAN 24 BEFORE
HAL MCD SEE
STLD
MON JAN 24 AFTER
ALB AMGN AXP
CR CSX JEC
MSPD SANM SLG
STM TXN VLTR
VMW ZION
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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