The other day, someone asked me about something I’ve never addressed in this space. The question was how many trades per day do I do on an average day? The answer is going to sound like a really obvious answer to some, but for me, it wasn’t so obvious until about 10 years into my career. The answer is this: the number of trades I do on any given day depends on the level of the action in the markets. When I was younger, I felt like I had to capture every minute move that could ever exist. Consequently, I found that particularly on very low volatility days, I’d chop myself into the oblivion and into a place called Losing Land- a place no trader ever wants to visit. So on a slow when the NASDAQ trades in a band of less than 10 points, I only do two or three major trades on the day with about 10-15 much smaller trades in prepping for the bigger ones. But you know what? That is a good day when next to nothing is going on and I’ll take it over trying to do more with nothing. Conversely, when the market is quite busy, I will do 200 trades a day if not more. When things are busy, that is when it is really time to go to work and do whatever is possible action-wise. I of course realize these numbers are low compared to some of you, but that’s the answer…I know my limits intellectually much less physically so I push it as much as possible when busy without breaking myself and don’t push it at all when there’s nothing to do because, really, there is absolutely no point. So, there’s no definite answer I can give anyone except to base your activity based on the market- do not overtrade when it is pointless, but trade as actively as possible when the opportunities are there. And for those of you rolling your eyes as I would have done for 10 years or so upon reading something like this, I hope you discovered the context of this entire post in much less time than I did and invite anyone out there to opine further.
Markets in Asia were up fractionally with Tokyo up 0.4%. The European bourses were up 0.5% on average. Commodities are broadly higher across the board to the tune of about ¾%. Futures are sharply higher after positive earnings data from JPM and INTC as well as good CPI data. Look for strong gains today on good volume with INTC and JPM as the benchmarks. Focus on A-B-A2 plays to the upside and relative weakness plays as well as all of the stocks in the news and the microcaps as things will be moving this morning in particular.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
CSX- decent earnings
INTC- great earnings
LLTC- good earnings
ESI- closed near a high on rumors of positive regulation draft reports
VRS- closed near a high after a brokerage upgrade
HOTT, SFY- on “Mad Money” last night
KLIC- fantastic earnings guidance
JPM- good earnings
MAPP- announced potential of Levadex to treat patients with migraines
AEN- positive phase I study results of its Alzheimer’s product results
ITMN- positive top line results from its phase 2B study of Danoprevir
CRXX- announced the publication of new preclinical data in a hematology magazine
AAPL- positive iPad comments
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
ABK- complete utter total reversal in falling 50% from its high to close on an intra-day low after JPM reiterated that they believe the shares still have “no value”
RNN- reversed dramatically in closing near a low
RPC- closed near a low and announced convertible offering after the close
AVP- closed near a low after confirmation of a bribery scandal in the executive room at the company
EXAS- share offering
BMR- share offering
CKSW- share offering
ASML- poor earnings
POT, MOS- downgraded by Goldman Sachs
GWW- poor earnings
Earnings:
WED APR 14 BEFORE
ASML GWW JPM
PGR
WED APR 14 AFTER
JBHT LSTR YUM
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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