As any person with any degree of intelligence, reason, logic, and some degree of wealth knows, going to Las Vegas or Atlantic City can be a pleasurable experience- win or lose. Both the Las Vegas Strip as well as the Boardwalk have been gentrified somewhat over the last few years, the restaurants and hotels have fine amenities if at the right place, and oh by the way- there are casinos. For those that love gambling, this is real paradise. But the main way to keep the average person from losing a tremendous amount of money much less ruining his/her vacation (or life for that matter) is to go into a casino expecting to win yet being well aware of how much money one is willing to lose if things go awry- and stick to it. I am loathe to compare day trading to any form of gambling because if one knows what one is doing, one can and will make money over time (which in fairness is true in gambling as well in games such as poker). With that in mind, even the experienced traders among us (certainly including me) are going to have a dreadful trading session every now and again. Just as with the Vegas analogy, one must go into each trading day knowing how much one is willing to lose- and stick to it so as not to blow out one’s account in one day much less one trade. I had a particularly bad day a week or so ago in which almost everything I picked out did indeed move…but not until I exited for a small loss yet on the three positions I held a little longer, they kept going against me. To my credit, I kept trying to fight it in thinking that I’d come back if I kept plugging away, but it was not to be. I hit my personal loss limit (something that happens on average two times a year) and stopped. I then paper-traded to keep myself fresh and build up a little rhythm for the next day (a day in which I gained back about half of what I lost- and all of it and more in two days). Had I kept trading on that losing day though, I don’t know what would have happened. And I don’t want to know. Thus, realize no matter what you do, sometimes things just won’t go your way; when that is the case, have a mental loss number and stick to it. Over the long run, you’ll save yourself a lot of mental anguish much less money.
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight with Tokyo up 0.4%, but Hong Kong and China both down about 2%. In Europe, the tone is decidedly negative as Wall Street failed to rally yesterday plus Greek and now Portuguese worries are on the front burner. The euro is decidedly weaker in danger of breaching 1.33 with oil off 1%. Futures are lower as well with earnings plays like TXN offered lower. Bellwethers GS and AAPL are also down again. Look for the weakness to maintain (and contain) itself unless euro weakness gets exacerbated. Trading will likely be slower than yesterday as people will be listening to the GS hearings starting at 10AM ET. Trade less frequently in quantity of trades today than in the last couple of days, but there will be opportunities so hit them as best as possible when you can.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
RIMM- closed near a high after announcing they’ll be updating their web browsers for their new Blackberry OS
ASFN- closed near a high
FNSC- closed near a high
PPHM- closed near a high
LNY- closed near a high
RSH- decent earnings
TXN- decent earnings
CAVM- good earnings
SOA- decent earnings
PPDI- decent earnings
RCII- decent earnings
VECO- decent earnings
HMA- decent earnings
HMA- decent earnings
ICE, WFT- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
CIT- good earnings
CMI- good earnings
DD- good earnings
KCI- good earnings
LXK- good earnings
MMM- good earnings
SWK- good earnings
TLAB- good earnings
UA- good earnings
WU- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
GS- closed near a low
CRL- closed near a low after announcing WX acquisition and posting poor earnings
PCBC- closed near a low
BANR- closed near a low
WHI- closed near a low
CSR- closed near a low after posting earnings
GOOG- removed from Recommendation List at Goldman Sachs
ELX- poor earnings
BSX- poor earnings
MAS- poor earnings
SANM- poor earnings
WMS- bad earnings
SWI- terrible earnings
AIG- rating cut by KBR with a price target of 6
AMED- poor earnings
EL- poor earnings
F- beat earnings estimates, but missed revenue estimates
KCI- poor earnings
NTY- poor earnings
UPS- poor earnings
ODP- poor earnings
TYC- poor earnings
Earnings:
TUES APR 27 BEFORE
ADP AGCO AMED
ASH AVY BEAV
BP CE CIT
CMI CVG DD
ECL EL ENR
F FPL HCP
HSP KCI LCC
LXK MHP MMM
NEM NXY NOV
ODP SWK TLAB
TYC UA UAUA
UPS VLO WAT
WU X
TUES APR 27 AFTER
AFL BRCM BWLD
BXP CENX DFG
DVA DWA FIS
FLEX LIFE MOLX
MTW NSC PNRA
RHI RRC
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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