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Monday, April 26, 2010

MON APR. 26- The Strong Economy

I am as guilty as anyone of being a worrywart about many things. In the business world, I like many day traders have kept an eye on the Greek situation, geopolitics, and don’t understand how a nation having more debt than my little brain can comprehend is good for anything or anyone over the longer-run. Yet, the stock market continues to ramp higher. Most people are missing the basic picture. Let’s put aside the notion that the United States markets are a “bastion” for Asian investors worried about the Chinese property market or Europeans not know where to put money (which by the way is a two-pronged truism for what is occurring as foreigners are putting money into American markets). The fact of the matter is that in the immediate-term, the economy is improving. On Friday, we got data which showed that sales of new homes were up 27% in March (the biggest gain in 47 years) and orders for durable goods ramped higher as well. Now sure, I am well aware that the ending of a government tax credit on April 30 is helping to spur a rush into homes and do not deny the existence of the artificial jump but also know that the jump did indeed occur. But bookings for long-term owned things like industrial computers climbed 3%. Total orders did drop slightly, but was because of an artificial decline in commercial aircraft yet demand for things like car and truck parts rose sharply. So, ‘artificial” or not, the fact of the matter is that there is growth in the economy in the immediate-term (which is expanding). Thus, the markets haven’t cared whether it is government stimulated or not thus the sustained rise in stock prices for the past year.

Markets were strong overnight with the major Asian markets up around 2% (2.3% in Tokyo, 1.7% in Hong Kong). In Europe, markets are higher as well to the tune of about ¾% on average. Oil is up a bit over and above 85 a barrel with the euro a tinge weaker. Futures are quiet, but slightly higher. Big cap financials are mixed, but techs are stronger. For the day, look for a maintenance of the strength in somewhat quiet overall trading. But there will be tremendous action underneath the surface on some decent earnings flow (most companies reported good results), lots of merger activity, and some microcaps on the move once again.

Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

MRK- closed near a high after announcing intra-day information of U.S. health care reform legislation

CHCI- among the small-cap homebuilders which closed near a high

SII- closed near a high

NFX- closed near a high

WFT- closed near a high

SLB- closed near a high after posting great earnings

DEAR, FMBI, STSA, FPBI, BAYN- among the small regional bank stocks closing near a high

WDC- closed near a high after posting earnings

UAUA- closed near a high

SLXP- closed near a high

CSNT- closed near a high

SOHU- decent earnings

HUM- decent earnings

WHR- great earnings

DRAD- received 510(k) clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), enabling the Company to market and distribute its ergo large field-of-view, general-purpose portable imaging system.

WX- being bought out for $21.25- 11.25 in cash and 10 in CRL stock

DTG- being bought out by HTZ for 41 including a cash dividend of 6.88, 25.92 in ash on close, and .6366 shares of HTZ

CAT- good earnings guidance

CRNT- decent earnings

DNDN- announced presentation of additional data from phase 3 IMPACT data

CHKP- decent earnings



Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

BCR- closed near a low in an island reversal after posting earnings

AMZN- closed near a low after posting earnings

GS- closed near a low

CRL- buying out WX and poor earnings

RMBS- negative article in “Barron’s”






Earnings:

MON APR 26 BEFORE

ACV BLK CAT

CHKP EXP HUM

LO OSIS ROP

SOHU WHR


MON APR 26 AFTER

ACL AMP BSX

CNI ELX HMA

JEC MAS OMI

PCL PPDI RCII

SANM SLG TXN

UHS VECO WMS



Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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