After a very very very busy stressful day at work and then running around with my three bosses (aka my wife and two daughters) followed by countless errands/miscellaneous tasks, well, suddenly 19-21 hours have gone by. Before I go to bed, I typically take about 10-15 minutes and either read a mindless magazine article while listening to soothing music or watch scenes of movies I’ve seen 175,487 times before. Two come to mind from recent times. The song first- “Patience” by Guns and Roses. The chorus (quite soothing although the song is subdued albeit one filled with hope) began to lull me to sleep:
[whistle]
...little patience, mm yeah, mm yeah
need a little patience, yeah
just a little patience, yeah
some more patience, yeah
need some patience, yeah
could use some patience, yeah
gotta have some patience, yeah
all it takes is patience,
just a little patience
is all you need *
I also happened to see a scene from “Coming to America,” the Eddie Murphy classic in which Murphy’s character proposes marriage to his ‘princess’ on a New York City subway. While doing this, the ‘princess-to-be’ looks around while a somewhat elderly woman watching from afar mutters in perfect New Yorkese, “Go ahead, honey. Take a chance!” Both of these pop culture references came to my mind on a recent trading session. I was staring at a set-up on Joy Global (JOYG) for almost two hours. On a day in which financials were particularly strong, stocks in other sectors were selling off; one such stock was JOYG. The stock had a distinct buyer at 99.50. It would touch that low and then bounce off of it. I wanted to short the stock only if it got below 99.50 (I was cued up for 99.45). The hypothesis went that if the buyer left, the stock should sell off at least a little because nobody was left to support it. I again note…I only wanted to do it below 99.50. Well, the theme of patience was definitely in the background because I know if I shorted the stock at 99.50, odds were quite high that I’d lose because I had no idea when or if the buyer would stop purchasing shares. I’d much rather miss the trade than take what could have been a 20-40 cent a share hit on a few thousand shares of the stock. As far as “taking a chance,” well, that certainly does work in real life. I took a shot in going into the day trading career. I took a chance when I got married. I took a chance when I decided I wanted to be a father more than anything on the planet. I take a chance every day when I get behind the wheel of a car or eat food. But in day trading, much more often than not when one takes a chance, one is better off either going to Atlantic City because the odds are better there at the casinos. When I do a trade, I have a distinct idea in mind at a distinct entry. Time and again, when I ignore my parameters, I lose. So, particularly as we head into earnings season, realize there will be plentiful opportunities to earn a living but one must have the determination and calmness to do a trade accordingly so as to earn real money rather than gamble it away.
Markets in Asia rebounded overnight with Tokyo up 0.9% and Hong Kong 0.7%. In Europe, Frankfurt and London are up 1.2%. Oil is up a little with gold flat and the dollar slightly stronger. Futures are stronger per last night’s video as leaders such as AAPL rebound. Retail sales came in about as expected with Business Inventories (0.8%0, Crude Inventories out at 10:30AM, and the Beige Book at 2PM. For the day, the strength will likely maintain itself as the generals such as AAPL, JPM, and GS are back at the forefront of the early core rally. My focus will be on the financials on JPM’s earnings, RVBD and all stocks in its sector after the good report last night, biotech in the news, small-cap tech in the news (ZOOM), Chinese ADR’s on the Jefferies upgrade (SINA, BIDU), and any relative weakness play which sets up early.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
INVE- closed near a high following news that its ACiG technology was selected as a supplier for Google Places
NFLX- closed on a high
GMCR- closed near a high
IDIX- closed near a high
CYH- closed near a high as many took a second look at the validity of THC’s allegations from Monday
GIL- closed near a high after announcing acquisition of Gold Toe Moretz
RVBD- preannounced earnings to upside; FFIV, JNOR, APKT may move in sympathy
JPM- decent earnings
ADTN- good earnings
GRM- to be acquired by SLGN for .402 SLGN plus $4.75/share in cash
LFUS- decent earnings
PSTI- encouraging six-month follow up results of its Phase 1 Ischemia trials
ZOOM- formed deal with QCOM for 3G patent licenses
SINA, BIDU- positive comments from Jefferies
OSN- raised earnings guidance
MGM- entered into agreement governing proposed initial public offering of Macau joint venture and related convertible bond transaction
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
CCRT- closed near a low supposedly on preliminary results of its tender offer to buy up to 13.125 million shares at 8
WMS- closed near a low on poor earnings
FAST- closed near a low on poor earnings
ADES- closed near a low
AMZN- closed near a low
BIDU- closed near a low
OAS- closed near a low
AG- closed near a low
HCSG- poor earnings
TYC- closed near a high on takeover rumors, but now it appears the rumors weren’t true
Earnings:
WED APR 13 BEFORE
ASML JPM
WED APR 13 AFTER
None today
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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