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Thursday, April 14, 2011

THURS. APR. 14- When The Weather Warms Up

You ever come to work and just not feel like being there? And if you say "no," you are an absolutely terrible liar. Whether it be a beautiful day outside, a case of Fridayitis or just being distracted, there are times when all of us don't want to be in front of our screens. I have two very simple remedies for this when it happens to me. The first thing I do is attempt to remember why I am in the office in the first place. I stare at pictures of my two kids and realize that if I want to do nice things for them of a monetary nature, I better make a little money trading. That usually settles me down in doing the trick. However, there are days when I start out 0 for 5 and down a small $500 despite it all. At that point, I stare at my mortgage statement and car bills (which I always carry with me). I then realize I better earn a living if I want to pay my bills. At that point, I rapidly calm down...and bog down. And by the way, since I ultimately need to earn a living quite badly, leaving early is not the solution because all it does is make me have to catch up much less put me behind for the next trading day. So, the next time you don't feel like working, don't necessarily follow my lead but definitely have a plan for re-gaining your focus else risk losing not only time but money.

Tokyo was up 0.1% but Hong Kong was down 0.5% overnight. Prices, however, were weak in Europe with London down 1% and Frankfurt off 0.8%. Commodities are mixed with gold up slightly but oil down slightly. The dollar is weaker against the yen but slightly stronger against the euro. Futures are lower on inflation worries. Jobless claims (385K) and Continuing Claims (3700K), PPI (1.0%), and Core PPI (0.2%) are due out at 8:30AM. Ahead of the GOOG report this afternoon, the markets should remain relatively quiet today with a slight downside bias. The focus will likely be on the secondary offerings in strong stocks (VRA, SODA), earnings plays (SVU), Chinese ADRs (SINA), IPO’s (ARCO, ZIP), and relative strength plays.

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.


If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

NFLX- closed near a high

AAPL- closed near a high

BIIB- closed near a high

LULU- closed near a high

SLGN/GRM- closed near their highs on the SLGN for GRM deal

SINA, BIDU, YOKU- closed near a high on a brokerage upgrade

SODA- closed near a high

MA- closed near a high

HK- closed near a high

DECK- closed near a high

PCOM- closed near a high after forming a business venture with H

SINA- featured on “Mad Money” last night

ZIP- pricing IPO 9.68 million shares at 18

FCS- decent earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

RIG- closed near a low

UFPI- terrible earnings

CPWR- poor earnings

CSR- closed near a low

CPF- closed near a low on its 18.5 million share registration statement

FSLR- operations chief leaving

STRA- closed near a low as it appears Congress will cut Pell grants for summer school students

HAS- poor earnings

VRA- priced 6 million share offering at 43.50

BPL- will offer at least 4.8 million shares



Earnings:

THURS APR 14 BEFORE

CBSH CHKP FCS

HAS PGR SVU

THURS APR 14 AFTER

CBK CBST GOOG

JBHT

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

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