Most of the time, when I get up on a typical weekday morning the first thing I do is go to the bathroom. After, um, "using the facilities" so to speak and washing my hands, I apply deodorant, get dressed, brush my hair, and then brush my teeth followed by a swig of Listerine (I tend to shower at night before going to bed as a relaxing technique). I then go downstairs, turn on Bloomberg to see the top news and the blizzard of numbers going across the screen so I can get a feel for what is going in the world. I then read a bevy of online newspaper headlines. At that point, I grab a banana, a cereal bar or yogurt, my lunch and head in to work. OK. That was as boring to type out as it was for you to read. But I do have two points. First, most successful traders tend to be creatures of habit and routine. It extends to real (albeit mundane) life as well. They tend to have a way they like to do things when it comes to preparing for the day in every way. I know, for instance, it drives me up a wall if I have to spend three minutes looking for toothpaste because my wife moved it. By the same token, I know I need to know as much as possible for the day by doing the same things each day from letting what I saw at 5 or 5:15AM subconsciously get into my system to the reading to sifting through every news story on the newswires that happened overnight once in the office to going through economic data to studying my previous day's trades to creating my watch list to writing this blog. If things were done randomly, things wouldn't be done effectively. Point two: when I need to change, I change. If I've had two poor trading days in a row, I spend a lot of extra time poring over the previous day's trades. If it's deep in earnings season, I start my day an extra hour earlier to make sure I have time to gather the extra information and trade particularly early in the morning. If there's a major unexpected news event dramatically impacting stock prices, I budget extra time to study the event to make myself ready for the unique day. So, the net of it is that if you are having a degree of success, generally stick to what you're doing. But if you need to improve yourself for whatever reason from a bout of failure to information overload, be ready to do so- but make sure you allow extra time so that you don't rush through the process to maximize every chance for earning a living.
Markets overnight were higher throughout the world with Hong Kong up 1.5% and Tokyo even more at 2.5%. The tone is very firm in Europe as well with London up 0.7% and Frankfurt 1.3%. Oil is down slightly, gold is up 1%, and the dollar is a little stronger across the board. ADP Jobs data came out in-line. Crude Inventories are due out at 10:30AM. Fed Governors Bullard (1PM), Lacker (2PM), and Hoenig (2:30PM) are due to speak today. Futures are nicely higher. For the day, I am looking for a little of the rally to give way a bit as some of the leaders look and feel tired- particularly those in the news such as AAPL on the earnings cut at Jeffries. Action will likely be in the biotechs (CEPH and AMGN), relative strength/weakness plays, and the rare earths.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
NXPI- closed near a high after announcing the world’s smallest logic packages for handheld mobility
VHC- closed near a high on a bullish Seeking Alpha article
VRTX- closed near a high after issuing positive results on its medicine
PVH- closed near a high after posting good earnings
LULU- closed near a high after announcing a stock split
MCP, REE, AVL- closed near a high after MCP was upgraded by JP Morgan; this morning, announced R&D contract with the DOE
GFRE- closed near a high after being initiated with a ‘buy’ rating at Brean Murray
FFIV- closed near a high
CISG- closed near a high
AMZN- closed near a high
CLF- closed near a high
RIG- closed near a high
X- closed near a high
CNR- closed near a high
VDSI- closed near a high
RDC- closed near a high
STRI- closed near a high
OXM- good earnings
NLST- received new patents for HyperCloud memory
BLK- to be added to S&P 500 on Friday afternoon
CEPH- received proposal to be acquired for $73/share in cash
RRC, NG- featured on “Mad Money” last night
FDO- decent earnings
JOSB- decent earnings
ACHN- announced positive RVR results with ACH 1625 to treat chronic Hepatitis C
ISIG- announced special $2/share dividend
LNN- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
HRZ- closed near a low after warning of ‘going concern’ status in an SEC filing
AEM- closed near a low after warning of decreased production in one of its mines
TIBX- poor earnings
ZZ- poor earnings
ZOOM- poor earnings
ALGN- acquiring Cadent for $190 million; sees deal accretive to 2012 earnings but dilutive in immediate-term
VVTV- share offering
SCOK- closed near a low
UTA- postponed its earnings release
ACXM- CEO resigned and warned on earnings
AMGN- Takeda’s Motesanib missed primary goal in late-stage study
Earnings:
WED MAR 30 BEFORE
AYI FDO JOSB
WED MAR 30 AFTER
DRYS GMR MOS
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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