One of the many things I like about really intelligently written comedies is that the subject of the humor is usually within the realm of possibility. In general, the more absurd that something is, the less funny something becomes. For instance, a "Seinfeld" episode which focused simply on the ritual performed to ascertain soup at a New York eatery is consistently rated among the top episodes of a sitcom in the history of American comedy. However, many TV shows or movies which have been spectacular flops- particularly in the last 20 years- failed simply because the premise was too fanciful to be believed. In trading, the latter unfortunately is a characteristic found in flawed traders. Indeed, during the early part of my career, I thought I was infallible. No setback was too big and I could keep doing what I was doing. It's why I made and lost well into the six figures three different times by the time I was 22 years old. Don't get me wrong. Having a good attitude is a must. I mean, my attitude is that if I can bowl one strike on the 1st frame, why can't I bowl a perfect game because, well, I already bowled a strike once so why not a few more times? In trading, however, having a Napoleon type complex is the worst thing possible. I'll never forget several years ago when someone in my office lost well over $10,000 in the space of three days and simply noted "Well, I just lost a week's pay. I'll get it back next week." The sad truth is that he and I both knew that he hadn't had a winning week in quite some time. Thus, know when enough is enough as well as when you need to change else you won't be around to trade for very long. Everyone is going to have losing days- the trick is to keep the losses contained so as to keep oneself from being demolished.
Markets were mixed in Asia overnight with Hong Kong flat, Tokyo down 0.2%, and Sydney up 0.4%. The trend is lower in Europe though with London down 0.3%, Paris 0.5%, and Frankfurt 0.8%. Gold and oil are both down about ½%. The dollar is slightly stronger across the board with bonds down a touch. Case-Shiller is due out at 9AM with Consumer Confidence expected (65.0) at 10AM. There’s were some mildly hawkish comments from mildly hawkish Fed governor Bullard of St. Louis this morning. Futures are weaker by a touch. Look for what will likely be another relatively placid session today with not much news out there to move things. The only wild card will be if selling pressure becomes a bit exacerbated in the commodities and/or if some aftershocks in Japan move things. The focus will likely be on select retailers in the news (PVH), oil and gad equipment service plays (HAL), and relative strength/weakness plays.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
PVH- decent earnings
LULU- closed near a high and announced a 2 for 1 split after the close
HD- announced $1 billion accelerated stock buyback
TRCI- received $7.20/share buyout bid from CCIX
VRTX- positive data from VX-770 phase III registration program
CTFO- decent earnings
LEN- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
PRGS- poor earnings
AONE- share offering
HAL- warned on 1st quarter earnings
FCH- share offering
ETP- share offering
CISG- closed near a low after a JP Morgan downgrade
EBIX- closed near a low
GS- closed near a low
WAC- closed near a low after declassifying as a REIT and announcing an acquisition
CBEH- closed near a low amid rumors of material falsification of business practices
Earnings:
TUES MAR 29 BEFORE
APOL LEN
TUES MAR 29 AFTER
TIBX
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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