The VXX (an instrument used to attempt to replicate the S&P 500 VIX volatility index) had its first higher close on a month-to-month basis since March 2009. What is interesting about this to me is that this was the first month in quite some time that I felt was actually an “up” month for the markets- mainly because I am biased by tracking stocks such as AAPL every day. Thus, I was a little surprised to see that the S&P 500 was only ahead 1.5%. So, what exactly is different? First, as evidenced by Friday, Goldman Sachs (GS) is behaving even worse than many market observers would expect it to particularly when the investigation into the company went from civil to criminal on Friday- a development that was actually largely expected! Second, commodities had a bang-up month. Very quietly, gold approached $1,200 an ounce anew with oil having breached $86/barrel. New developments such as the burgeoning crisis in the Gulf of Mexico contributed to the dramatic ascent in prices. Third, the threat of contagion in Europe became quite real. Greece’s bonds went into freefall with yields on bonds rising in nations such as Portugal, Ireland, and Spain. Counterbalancing all of this has been a tide of money from Europe looking to find a home, very strong corporate earnings and economic data, and hope- hope for an economic recovery and continued improved performance overall. For much of the last year, the atmosphere was one of living in fear…now it is one of that aforementioned “hope” with some “greed” tossed in for good measure in smaller stocks and remnants of “fear” showing how much air can be taken out of stocks on news such as what has occurred in GS. Thus, as we begin May, realize the atmosphere for the first half of the month at least will be one of volatility as the latter third of earnings season winds up along with more of a resolution to the Greek situation in the immediate-term and a more concrete picture of what will happen at GS combined with renewed terrorism fears based on the events of Saturday night in Times Square. Be ready.
Markets overseas were generally lower overnight but somewhat muted because of the May Day holiday. Hong Kong fell 1.4% with Germany down about 0.25% but markets in places like Tokyo and London were closed. There is a wealth of headlines this morning. There’s been an (expected) approval for an austerity package for Greece. There was an attempted car bomb attack in Times Square on Saturday (which thankfully failed big-time). There’s been a sudden increase in taxes in Australia on mining entities. The estimates on the oil slick in the Gulf continue to grow. The net of all of this is a bit of a rise in commodities and a weakened euro as doubts remain over whether Greece will adhere to terms of their deal much less if the damage is truly contained. Yet, AAPL is way ahead on positive sales data with GS sharply higher upon getting a vote of confidence from Warren Buffett over the weekend. This combination is leading to a small rise in the futures. Track GS and AAPL for signals as to what will happen today; the likelihood is that the markets will maintain a small rise in a quiet session. Focus on big cap techs and financials, the oil drillers, and the small caps in the news.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
BPOP- 3 of 10 Puerto Rico-based banks were closed with BPOP acquiring the assets from one of them
POZN- won FDA approval of its arthritis drug (Vimovo)
OFG- acquired assets of Eurobank (EUBK) from FDIC
KT- closed near a high
GFIG- closed near a high after posting earnings
OCLRD- closed near a high
CTIB- closed near a high after posting earnings
AGN- featured on “Mad Money” on Friday night
DLB- closed near a high after posting earnings
CAL- announced mergers of equals with UAUA; CAL shareholders will receive 1.05 shares of UAUA for each CAL share they own
BRK/B- announced decent earnings over the weekend
RPTP- announced phase 2a NASH study met primary endpoints
SYY- decent earnings
VRX- decent earnings
DTG- rumors of a bidding war for the company
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
ENP- announced lower than expected dividend as well as an intention to explore an alternative to its partnership with DNR
MEE- closed near a low amid worries of government action regarding the company’s operations
WLP- closed near a low after California rescinded its planned rate increase
AAPL– closed near a low
GS- closed near a low after the Fed said it was launching a criminal investigation into GS
TSL- closed near a low
VSEA- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
MSTR- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
OSK- closed near a low for 2nd day after posting earnings
FSS- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
FTBK- closed near a low in continuing a massive reversal
WFR- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
GMCR- closed near a low for 2nd day after posting earnings
SPG- closed near a low after posting earnings
WLT- closed near a low for 2nd day after posting earnings
WYNN- closed near a low after posting earnings
JOYG- closed near a low
MTD- island reversal in closing near a low after posting earnings
CSTR- island reversal in closing near a low after posting earnings
BHP, RTP- Australia imposed a somewhat anticipated surcharge type tax on these resource companies
Earnings:
MON MAY 3 BEFORE
AUXL AWI CLX
L MD SYY
VRX
MON MAY 3 AFTER
APC ASIA AUY
CAR CNQR CRK
EOG EXR FMC
FST GNK HCN
HLF HOLX LF
MCK NTRI PBI
PFG SM VMC
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
No comments:
Post a Comment