A few days ago, I wrote a piece about paying attention to all parts of the newspaper rather than just the business and sports sections of the daily rag/Internet site if you day trade. Such a very bold example occurred yesterday. I was taken aback when three people asked me some derivation of the inquiry “I didn’t know there was an oil spill near the United States. When did it occur and where did it happen?” Of course, this has been the top story in the news for quite some time now, but it harks back to making sure one is well-read about everything because one never knows when one will need said knowledge base for trading (much less educated about current events). There are numerous horrific environmental consequences which do not make for an eco-friendly world and of course numerous fantastic entities to help serve a “greener” world such as an entity like (http://www.tinygreenbubble.com). However, this is a day trading blog so I am going to stick with some pretty amazing economic facts. According to the Christian Science Monitor from an April 27 article, the oil spill from a Transocean Deepwater Horizon oil rig was swelling dramatically in size with almost 50,000 gallons of oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico on a daily basis. The accident thankfully is generally a derivation from the stable norm for the industry but underscores the fragility of the deepwater oil drilling business (much less puts into doubt President Obama’s plans for expanding offshore drilling). Economically, some are now saying that the spill may well be bigger than the Exxon Valdez oil slick and may well cause serious damage to the already delicate fish and shrimp nurseries off the coast of Louisiana by this weekend. Specifically in day trading land, while many people were lunching, there was quite an opportunity. All sorts of rumors floated that the spill may be the worst of all time (or not as bad as thought), legislation would be tightened on oil drilling (or not), and that Obama’s plan was in immediate danger (or not). Stocks such as RIG, HAL, CAM, APA, OII, and BP became major trading vehicles around 12:30PM-1PM ET as various news pieces and confirmation of a presidential speech came to fruition. Thus, the daily epiphany is two-fold: first, one never knows when something can happen. If it’s a 73 degree sunny day and you want to go outside (G-d knows I wanted to do so), know you are taking the risk of missing terrific trading opportunities. Second, besides the obvious Boy Scout “be prepared” theme, do keep up with what is going on with this oil situation. It may well have major repercussions for not only the planet and the United States, but oh yeah, it will very much affect day trading as well in the coming days.
Markets in Asia were up sharply overnight with Tokyo up 1.2% and Hong Kong ahead 1.6%. European markets are lightly mixed with the bourses in a band of down ¼% to up ¼% depending on the nation. Oil and gold are both ahead again with the euro notably strong. The two major headlines overnight are of the Greeks seemingly on the verge of accepting an austerity package while the Feds have launched a criminal probe into Goldman Sachs (GS). Futures are focusing on the former with prices a little higher. For today- the last day of the month- it looks like the mo-mo train will continue. It likely will not be a dramatic trading session as the weather will be beautiful so lots of Manhattanites will likely leave a little early to get nine holes in. Focus on the myriad of earnings plays, the relative weakness plays, and try to do most of your trading in the morning. Keep a weary eye to GS and the euro.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
WYNN- good earnings
DNDN- closed near a high on its Provenge approval
SHOO- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
ABG- closed near a high after posting great earnings
RAS- closed near a high after posting great earnings
ITRI- closed near a high after posting great earnings
EVVV- closed near a high after posting great earnings
SPG, BXP, VNO, EQR- among the REIT’s closing near their highs yesterday
GTI- closed near a high after posting good earnings
HRS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
BC- closed near a high after posting good earnings
TWC- closed near a high after posting good earnings
HOT- closed near a high after posting good earnings
ORLY- closed near a high after posting good earnings
CSTR- great earnings
APKT- great earnings
SWKS- good earnings and mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
VSEA- good earnings
AMCC- decent earnings
THOR- great earnings
DLB- good earnings
KLAC- decent earnings
DHI- decent earnings
VFC- decent earnings
JRCC- decent earnings
RPRX- FDA may lift clinical hold on testing of Proellex at low doses
CVX- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
GS- Feds have now launched a criminal probe into the company’s mortgage practices
BP, RIG, HAL, CAM- all closed sharply lower on the Gulf oil spill story
IRM- closed near a low on poor earnings
HAR- closed near a low on poor earnings
APOL, CECO- among the education stocks closing sharply lower after critical comments from a Department of Education spokesperson
MET- poor earnings
MFE- poor earnings
WFR- poor earnings
MWW- poor earnings
MCBC- poor earnings
ATHN- terrible earnings
NETL- poor earnings
MXIM- poor earnings
QLGC- poor earnings
DRIV- poor earnings
CQB- poor earnings
TSO- poor earnings
AMX- poor earnings
NDAQ- poor earnings
MSTR- terrible earnings
AXL- poor earnings
Earnings:
FRI APR 30 BEFORE
AGN AGP AIV
AON AVP AXL
CEG CVH CVX
DISCA DHI ENDP
ITT JRCC NDAQ
NWL PAG SPG
UFS VFC
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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