Of all the ways to get bad news, the worst way for the human body physically and emotionally in the short-run is to get it via total shock. For instance, if I was a three-pack-a-day cigarette smoker and my doctor told me at my annual physical that after I hadn’t been feeling well that they found a spot on my lung, it wouldn’t be a total shock. If, however, I was in perfect health and had never smoked a cigarette in my life (which I haven’t) and my doctor told me he found a spot on my lung, I’d be totally shocked. It’d be a punch to the gut. Now, I don’t diminish this from the first scenario; both are horrific prognoses yet one wouldn’t be a stunner while the latter would be a horrific shock. So it is with trading. Every trader out there knows that there are pitfalls to anything, but tries their best to mitigate against disastrous trades. Sometimes, however, one can do everything right and still get crushed. Such a trade happened on Friday morning. AIG announced they may need more money to survive, it traded in a tight band, the market was selling off, there was stagnation, chatter on the chat room, there was the potential to make 50 cents a share or more, and there was plenty of liquidity. But you know, one day (hopefully long after we’re all gone), the sun just is not gonna rise in the east. Speaking for me, I lost almost my entire week in that one trade as I had it in large size and did almost everything wrong in exiting as the liquidity dissipated. And I got my punch to the gut. I give all of this backstory to make a point: what has happened in the past matters from studying it to see to it that you can try to prevent it from happening again. The trick is the future. What happens next. Do you moan and whine and complain or do you get back at ‘em? Well, if you want to have any chance to succeed, you start plugging away…smaller to try to get a rhythm, but you get back to work. I am proud to say that many people were hit early on Friday morning by AIG and a couple of others, but the firm’s traders (i.e. those that kept trading after 10AM ET) as a whole almost completely wiped out their losses. To me, that shows a seasoned disciplined group of guys who were able to fight off adversity- that is a terrific thing. There can be such a thing as a ‘good’ losing day; for many of us, this is what Friday was. One must never forget the past, but keep an eye on the future and do one’s best to come back from extraordinary adversity rather than give up or just crumble. That innate ability is a must if you want to make it as a trader.
Market in Asia were strong overnight with Honk leading the way, ahead over 2%. In Europe, prices are also ahead but off their highs; Germany is the strongest at up 1% but London and Paris have pared their gains to below ½%. Gold is slightly down. The wild card here is the euro which has crumbled in the 7AM ET hour, down almost a full unit against the dollar. Miners are strong overseas on the heels of the Chilean disaster with financials lower with the AIG unit acquisition and an HSBC (HBC) earnings warning. The markets are trading ahead overall because of rumors of a Greece bailout by Germany specifically as well as strength in miners. For today, it’d seem that the euro’s weakness won’t be totally ignored; futures have given back more than half of their early gains as of this writing. That’s they key; if the euro stabilizes, the markets will actually digest what has happened and likely resume their early rally; if the euro plunges below 1.35 and stays down there, the opposite will hold true. Volumes will likely remain light so certainly focus on the myriad of news plays while trading momentum only if the euro has a bizarre move which leads to a bizarre move in equity land.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
NUVA- closed near a high after getting confirmation of its product to be approved for insurance by several major carriers
DTSI- closed near a high after partnering with Samsung to deliver audio to digital televisions
CNAM- closed on a high
BRK/B- closed near a high
HANS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
CIT- closed near a high after planning its first bond sale since declaring bankruptcy
TREX- closed on a high after posting good earnings
MHK- closed near a high after posting good earnings
DECK- closed near a high after posting great earnings
FSLR- closed near a high
FCX- closed near a high
UAUA- closed near a high
CTCM- closed near a high after posting great earnings
BRK/B- announced decent earnings over the weekend
MIL, TMO- MIL received $107/cash takeover period from Germany’s Merck; TMO seems to be out of the mix
FCX- expected to benefit net-net from the Chilean disaster over the weekend as copper supplies will lightly tighten due to infrastructure issues in Chile
OSIP- received $52/cash takeover offer from Astellas
DISH- decent earnings
AIG- in pact to sell its AIA Group to Prudential, PLC for $36 billion
EP- decent earnings
BIOD FDA to review the company’s insulin product
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
SGS- closed near a low on a big sell imbalance
AIG- closed near a low after posting earnings but intimating that they need more money to survive
FCN- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
ATHN- closed near a low after postponing its earnings
WTW- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
PALM- continued its decline after posting poor earnings in closing near a low
RMTI- closed near a low after phase IIb trial failed to meet one of its endpoints
PWRD- poor earnings
CEDC- poor earnings
SNDA- poor earnings
Earnings:
MON MAR 1 BEFORE
AMAG BID BPZ
CEDC DISH EIX
EP IPI KWK
OSG PSA PWRD
RDC SGMS
MON MAR 1 AFTER
MBI MDR NTRI
SQNM
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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