On a Tuesday night, at some point in your life, have you ever been out too late socializing (whether your drink of choice was coffee, juice, water…or of course something a bit stronger), dealt with drama of some sort from family and/or friends, had some sort of cold/stomach bug, or just simply watched some bad movies or television shows until 2AM? If you said “no,” you’re lying. Now, have you ever had to get up for work early the next morning (for many of us, quite routinely)? Furthermore, if you trade for a living, has this happened (unfortunately) too many times in your career? For many of us, it is all too true that we come to work particularly exhausted at certain times. We all get tired and come to work tired, but I am talking sleep-consuming-mind-thoughts-tired exhaustion. On those days, we of course find it much harder to trade as our attention spans (and patience and temper and discipline) tend to me much shorter. When you find it hard to keep your eyes open, don’t fight it. This sounds like such obvious and easy advice yet to follow it yet most people (certainly including myself) ignore that basic tenet. The reason is quite obvious- if we’re at work, we’re here to earn a living. But realize that we hold a loaded financial gun every single time we click a mouse in attempting to execute a buy or sell order. When truly exhausted, judgment is much worse. So, again, this sounds so basic that is preposterous I am writing a piece on this, but when particularly worn down, cut down on your trade size, take extra walks, do fewer trades, and get some rest after the trading day else your trading performance will suffer as badly as mine has whenever I am too tired to properly focus.
Markets in Asia rebounded a bit overnight with Hong Kong up 1%. In Europe, the bourses are up ½% to ¾%, but most were up at leas t1% earlier. Te culprit seems to be the euro which was notably stronger early, but has now come all the way back. Commodities are quiet. Futures state-side are slightly weaker, but also off of their highs. With Snowpalooza 2010 continuing unabated, it is likely to be a quiet session. Manhattan may well have 15-20 inches of snow when all is said and done with the schools closed again. Look for a fairly quiet day on thin trade; the pace may actually pick up a bit later in the morning as the snow will randomly diminish to flurries before starting anew later so a few stragglers may come in late. Prices will likely be in a narrow range. Opportunities will be relatively sparse so focus on the stocks in the news along with relative strength solely and please please stay away from momentum trades for as long as the market is quiet.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
DECK- great earnings
HANS- decent earnings
MHK- decent earnings
INT- good earnings
GPS- decent earnings
TRLG- closed near a high after posting great earnings
AAPL, AMZN- closed near highs; AAPL in particular reversed after rumors of a stock split and positive comments from CEO Jobs
SMSI- closed near a high after posting good earnings
FLS- reversed in closing near a high after posting earnings
TM- closed near a high
MGA- closed near a high in reversing after posting poor earnings
JOYG, BUCY- closed near highs
POT, MOS- closed near highs
ESV- closed near a high after posting good earnings
KSS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
NEM- closed near a high after posting good earnings
TSL, CSIQ- nice reversals in closing near high of day
TMO- reversed in closing near high of day
FCX- closed near high of day
X, NUE- closed near highs of day
GS- island reversal in closing near a high
WLP- closed near a high
RDN- closed near a high
CAGC- closed near a high
RST- good earnings
VLCM- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
DRYS- poor earnings
CROX- terrible earnings and audit language warned of the company as a ‘going concern’
ATHN- postponed earnings release to allow additional time to complete year-end audit
LEAP- poor earnings
FLR- terrible earnings
WTW- terrible earnings
NVTL- terrible earnings
OVTI- terrible earnings
SD- poor earnings
MON- closed near a low
KNDL- closed near a low after having terrible earnings
ROCK- closed near a low after having terrible earnings
DRC- poor earnings
FCN- terrible earnings
AIG- warned it may need additional funding after posting decent earnings
Earnings:
FRI FEB 26 BEFORE
AIG CTCM DRH
FBR FCN FRO
IPG MIR TEG
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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