On the morning Of October 3, 1995, many people I knew were on edge. It wasn’t because the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees were to face off that evening (a game the Yankees won 9-6). It wasn’t because Macedonian president Kiro Gilgorov was critically injured in a terrible car bomb attack (he survived by the way although he is now blind in one eye). Nopes. People were on edge because that was the day the O.J. Simpson verdict was due. I remember in my finance class that my professor let us out early so we could join the other 2,000 students in the business school at the time around televisions to hear all about The Juice’s fate. Everything froze. Well, something akin to that occurred last Friday at 11AM ET as people stopped to listen to what Tiger Woods had to say. A camera on the floor of the NYSE caught floor traders listening to every word the famed golfer read from his prepared statement. To the trader in me, two thoughts went through my head. First, very few people were going to be doing any real trading during Tiger’s speech so generally stay away as things were going to be illiquid. But second, if there was a spot to do something- anything, a move could get rapidly exaggerated. Indeed, it was during Tiger’s reading that the markets had that biggest spike of the day and I was able to procure one of my biggest profits that day by buying GS just below unchanged on the day despite the news of the discount rate hike. When that thing got positive, a few panicked shorts went to cover but there was nobody left to buy from because the market dried up. This led to an inordinate spike in GS very fast. So, the takeaway is pretty much as noted before- be aware of certain human interest friends that paralyze most traders into inaction. But realize any rare opportunity that can come up during that time can be very lucrative so a trader must pay attention to his/her P&L rather than watching a story which has no bearing on his/her own life.
Markets in Asia were down overnight with prices falling 1.5% in Tokyo and 0.8% in Hong Kong. Prices are modestly higher in Europe to the tune of about ¼% on average. Oil is up slightly, gold down slightly, and the dollar is about half a euro weaker. Futures are modestly higher. Bernanke is due to speak today starting at 10AM ET. It is highly likely that nothing of consequence other than CNBC-televised testimony will result, but those headlines are well worth monitoring. Otherwise, the markets look to the strikes in Greece and the euro’s performance for cues today in what should be a relatively placid session. Focus on the stocks in the news as well as the materials, financials, and techs.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
SLXP- FDA panel backed SLXP drug for hepatic encephalopathy
ADSK- good earnings
OSIP- decent earnings
CDI- closed near high after posting good earnings
XCO- decent earnings
BNE- being acquired by RRD for 11.50 in cash
TOL- good earnings
DAN- decent earnings
DLTR- decent earnings
GRMN- great earnings
TJX- decent earnings
XCO- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
STEC- atrocious earnings guidance
BCSI- poor earnings
DWA- poor earnings
CENX- poor earnings
SGY- poor earnings
VRGY- poor earnings
BRCD- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
XNPT- closed near a low after posting earnings
FSLR, CSIQ- closed near their lows
DNDN- closed near low after posting earnings
CTV- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
HLF- poor earnings guidance
CHS- poor earnings
RIG- bad earnings
Earnings:
WED FEB 24 BEFORE
ALD AMT CHS
CLWR DAN DLTR
FTR GRMN HPT
LXP PQ RIG
RRD SJM SKS
TJX TOL TSL
VPHM ZLC
WED FEB 24 AFTER
AHT BDN CCJ
CRM ESRX EXM
FLS GDP GNK
GVA HCN HLX
LTD NTES SQNM
TQNT WLL WRI
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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