On Friday, I made an assumption that people understood the concept of the discount rate hike and its implications for the markets, but I should not have done so as many people were asking me questions that quite admittedly even I did not know the answers to. So, it’s worth a few sentences to discuss what happened. As noted in Friday’s post, the Federal Reserve announced on Thursday night that they raised the discount rate from ½% to ¾%. The discount rate is defined as the interest rate a central bank charges depository entities such as banks which borrow reserves from it. So, the raise makes a little more costly for banks to borrow money from the Feds. Put another way, if say, Bank of America (BAC) made a lot of loans on any given day yet had an inordinate amount of depositors take out money for whatever reason, they may be short on capital needed to meet overnight standards. Thus, they need to borrow funds, need to get them somewhere, and need it fast. So, they borrow from the Federal government, pay a small fee for doing it, and all is OK for the next day if they could not borrow money from others such as other banks. The rate has been 0.5% for several years now and it was widely expected that the rate would go up. Many market followers were still caught off guard a bit as the move was not widely expected, but the markets weren’t with bonds down a little and equities finishing higher. This is also seen as a signal to the markets that the Fed is ready to begin to drain some of the excess liquidity and this is but one of the more minor tools out there to do it- and a fine start for the Fed to implement the beginning of an exit strategy. So, with everything pretty much on target, the markets took the hike in stride. The next step will be the March 16 Fed meeting; while rates will likely be left alone, it will be important to watch the language of the statements for the interest rate outlook. But as far as the move from Thursday was concerned, it is certainly something to understand, but the realization is that there must be some sort of out on the stimulus with the discount rate hike not being something to be getting work up about.
Markets were mixed in Asia overnight with Tokyo down 0.5% but Hong Kong up 1.2%. Markets are also weaker in Europe from slightly in London to over 0.5% in Germany. The yen is stronger worldwide with the dollar marginally weaker against that currency but stronger against the yen. Oil and gold are both down as well. Futures are marginally weaker. With the euro weakening again and TGT’s numbers not great, look for a mild downside day. It will be another quiet session in all likelihood ahead of Bernanke’s testimony tomorrow and Thursday. Focus on the earnings plays, the news-centric stocks, and stay away from all momentum trading unless the market picks up.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
IFLG- tripled on the day…and closed near a high
AIG- closed near a high amid rumors from a Bloomberg story that bailout support brings stable revenue
PLL- closed near a high on very vague takeover rumors in-line with MIL’s rally yesterday
HUM, UNH- closed near highs on Friday afternoon’s Medicare news
CLF- recent surge higher on earnings continued with the stock closing near the day’s high
PNC, JPM, WFC- closed near high of day in a strong bank sector
DEER- closed near a high after announcing an initiation of product sales to Wal-Mart stores in China
AMED- decent earnings
HD- good earnings
HSIC- decent earnings
RDN- decent earnings
M- decent earnings
SHLD- good earnings
PIP- will get up to $78.4 million from the Department of Health and Human Services for a research and development contract
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
CSKI- closed near a low after Asensio.Com noted that CSKI’s products have been called “counterfeit drug products” by China’s Ministry of Public Health
DGW- closed near a low
LECO- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
AMSC- closed near a low
RSH- poor earnings
DNDN- lukewarm earnings
MELI- terrible earnings
JWN- bad earnings
BRCD- terrible earnings
HLS- terrible earnings
CBI- poor earnings
NRG- poor earnings
TGT- beat earnings, but missed revenues
BKS- poor earnings
RDN- good earnings
Earnings:
TUES FEB 23 BEFORE
ACOR AMED BBG
BKS DSX EXPD
GTI HD HK
HLS HSIC IDC
JOE M MDT
MHS NRG ODP
PNM RDN SAFM
SHLD TGT THC
VNO WPI
TUES FEB 23 AFTER
ADSK APL BCSI
BMRN CENX CQB
DWA FSP HLF
OEH ONXX OSIP
RRC SGY SKT
STEC XCO
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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