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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

WED. FEB. 10: Snow Day (But Not For Us)

For those of you who are fans of the work of Chevy Chase and Chris Elliott, you’ll know that the campy “Snow Day” (which grossed $62.7 million on a $13 budget) may have further enriched those gentlemen but dramatic theater it was not. In the campy movie, Chevy Chase played a TV meteorologist while his two kids tried to keep their school snowed in by stopping a now plow driver from plowing the streets. Quite the plot. I bring this up because of the snow that is falling extraordinarily fast right now here in the New York area. Those of you from DC/Baltimore/Phily already are well aware as far back as Sunday just how much snow is out there! For those kids among us, snow creates a little extra adrenalin…before the inevitable logistical nightmare that it wreaks on all of us who are not lucky enough to be able to stay in the house, drink hot cocoa, and watch television. Snow days quite logically tend to create much less volume on the exchanges as some people physically cannot make it into work much less logistically (the Long Island Railroad is supposed to close now if there is 10 inches of snow or more) plus many people who can drink that hot cocoa choose to do so. This makes trading conditions extremely illiquid and stocks typically either very volatile or very dull- with no in between. Furthermore, there is some history of the NYSE taking action on major snow events. The exchange was closed during the blizzards of March 1888, February 1934, January 1948, and February 1969. In addition, there were delayed opens and/or closes in February 1975, February 1976, January and February 1978, February 1994, and most recently an 11AM open and 2PM close on January 8, 1996. So, the takeaway is two-fold: expect most of the trading to be conducted early today in very thin conditions yet don’t count on an early close for the markets although it wouldn’t be unprecedented if it did occur.

Markets in Asia were up slightly overnight with Tokyo up 0.3% and Hong Kong 0.7%. European bourses are ahead across the board by about 1 ¼% on average. Oil and gold are up about 0.5% each while the dollar is marginally weaker against the euro and yen. Futures are up slightly. Look for very thin and illiquid trade driven on rumors about Greece, Iran, and whether we’ll have a full day of trading. Focus on the stocks with earnings as well as major relative strength/weakness plays otherwise don’t do a whole lot particularly as the day progresses and people leave a little (to a lot) earlier than normal.

Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

BIDU- great earnings

NTGR- great earnings

DIS- good earnings

CERN- beat on quarter, warned for next quarter…stock traded higher after-hours last night

TCO- decent earnings

NBG- closed near a high on all the Greek bank rumors

CTSH- closed near a high after posting good earnings

VECO- closed near a high after posting great earnings

UAUA- closed near a high after announcing positive revenue passenger numbers

RNWK- announced it is spinning off Rhapsody

FNSR- good earnings

CLB- mentioned on “”Mad Money” last night

ATHX- received U.S. patent covering adult stem cell composition and production

S- decent earnings

YMI- granted two US patents for Aerolef

MON- confirmed guidance

GENZ, ISIS- positive phase III Miromersen study

ADBE- received upgrades from Jefferies and Credit Suisse

CSC- decent earnings

NYT- decent earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

UDR- lukewarm earnings

ASEI- poor earnings

EXBD- poor earnings

XL- lukewarm warnings

ENER- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

FSYS- closed near a low

TRGL- closed near a low after offering three million shares at 8.50

TRMK- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

MT- poor earnings

DF_ poor earnings





Earnings:

WED FEB 10 BEFORE

BHP CCE CSC

DF ELN ICE

ID LPX MMC

MT NYT S

SIAL WYN

WED FEB 10 AFTER

ALL AMKR ARRS

ATVI BSX EQIX

GSIC HIW MAS

NETC OFC PL

PRE PRU PVA

TMK VALE XRAY



Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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