Today is going to likely be a day filled with news events (it's already been like this since I started just before 6AM), but one in which it will likely be very choppy trading-wise except for the earnings plays if you are not well-versed in the events to come. First, Treasury Secretary Geithner faces a rough day today. Geithner- who was marginalized (and reportedly disagreed with) President Obama and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker over the banks proposals of last week- faces questions from the House of Representatives Government Oversight Committee over his role in the controversial AIG bailout. What promises to be a very testy hearing may well set the fate for the future of Geithner. The media circus is scheduled to start at 10AM. Second, Apple (AAPL) will announce what its Tablet will be. Many Applephiles will likely blindly buy the device no matter what, but the expectations are extremely high. With the company having posted great earnings, all eyes are on the announcement scheduled to take place at 1PM with Steve Jobs releasing the news. Next, 2:15PM today will culminate a two-day Fed meeting. Interest rates are likely to stay unchanged, but the language of the statement could be pivotal. Look for buzzwords such as “weakness,” “strength,” “revision,” “possible upward movement,” and any major change in the policy statement which differentiates itself from the past few statements. Finally, President Obama will deliver the annual State Of The Union Address tonight at 9PM. Details of the speech will likely filter out through the day today just as the ‘spending freeze’ tenet was a popular subject of discussion yesterday. So, it is certainly a day to keep your eyes to the newswires, to be locked in to your terminals, and to be extraordinarily nimble.
Markets in Asia were down overnight with Tokyo down 0.7%, Hong Kong 0.4%, and Shanghai losing the critical 3000 level. Markets in Europe are down about 0.5% in general with Germany relative strong in trading around unchanged. The dollar is quiet with bonds flat, oil up slightly, and gold down slightly in holding below $1,100. Futures are down slightly state-side. But there are a lot of crosscurrents; as of this writing, most of the big cap techs are higher (AMZN, AAPL, GOOG all up over a point). Today will be a headline-driven very busy morning. Focus on the earnings and relative strength plays, but make that focus searing today. Be exceptionally quick to exit positions when wrong as things can get out of hand pretty quickly (and happily vice versa) on a day like today when anything can happen at any time.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
YHOO- decent earnings
GILD- great earnings
SANM- great earnings
DV- great earnings
BRK/B- to be added to S&P 500
KTCC- great earnings
ALTR- great earnings
MOLX- good earnings
PLT- good earnings
MTH- decent earnings
ELY- decent earnings
LXK- closed near a high
VCBI- closed near a high
AAPL, SBUX- featured on “Mad Money” last night
ROK- good earnings
TEL- good earnings
WLP- good earnings
AAI- decent earnings
POT- upgraded by Bank of America Merrill
ATI- decent earnings
HES- good earnings
DKS- pre-announced positive earnings guidance
MNI- great earnings
UAUA- good earnings
COP- decent earnings
STJ- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
QLGC- poor earnings
SYK- poor earnings
TPX- poor earnings
WMS- poor earnings
CBPO- closed near a low amid negative accusations from Seeking Alpha
CME, ICE- closed near lows
GASS- closed near a low after announcing the sale of a few vessels
ZION- near total reversal after posting good earnings
GS- closed near a low
AMZN- closed near a low, but upgraded by Kauffman
X- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
COF- closed near a low
PX- lukewarm earnings
BA- poor earnings
CAT- poor earnings
VLO- poor earnings
ITW- poor earnings
Earnings:
WED JAN 27 BEFORE
AAI ABT ATI
BA BLK CAT
COP EWBC GD
HES ITW MNI
MWV NYB OSIS
PX ROK SAP
SII SO STJ
SWK TEL UAUA
USG UTX VLO
WLP
WED JAN 27 AFTER
ACF BMC BYI
CCI CLS CTXS
CVD FLEX GMCR
HBI HRS ISIL
LRCX MUR NE
NFLX NSC OI
QCOM RYL SOA
SYMC TER VAR
WERN
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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