The Epiphany Trading Blog

This blog will only be viewable on www.CapitalMarketForum.com going forward.

Capital Market Forum Chatroom

Epiphany will now be participating in the Capital Market Forum's chat room located at
http://www.epiphanycapitalmanagement.com/epiphroom1.html

Epiphany Trading Videos

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

WED. JAN. 27- Setting Up A Busy Day

Today is going to likely be a day filled with news events (it's already been like this since I started just before 6AM), but one in which it will likely be very choppy trading-wise except for the earnings plays if you are not well-versed in the events to come. First, Treasury Secretary Geithner faces a rough day today. Geithner- who was marginalized (and reportedly disagreed with) President Obama and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker over the banks proposals of last week- faces questions from the House of Representatives Government Oversight Committee over his role in the controversial AIG bailout. What promises to be a very testy hearing may well set the fate for the future of Geithner. The media circus is scheduled to start at 10AM. Second, Apple (AAPL) will announce what its Tablet will be. Many Applephiles will likely blindly buy the device no matter what, but the expectations are extremely high. With the company having posted great earnings, all eyes are on the announcement scheduled to take place at 1PM with Steve Jobs releasing the news. Next, 2:15PM today will culminate a two-day Fed meeting. Interest rates are likely to stay unchanged, but the language of the statement could be pivotal. Look for buzzwords such as “weakness,” “strength,” “revision,” “possible upward movement,” and any major change in the policy statement which differentiates itself from the past few statements. Finally, President Obama will deliver the annual State Of The Union Address tonight at 9PM. Details of the speech will likely filter out through the day today just as the ‘spending freeze’ tenet was a popular subject of discussion yesterday. So, it is certainly a day to keep your eyes to the newswires, to be locked in to your terminals, and to be extraordinarily nimble.

Markets in Asia were down overnight with Tokyo down 0.7%, Hong Kong 0.4%, and Shanghai losing the critical 3000 level. Markets in Europe are down about 0.5% in general with Germany relative strong in trading around unchanged. The dollar is quiet with bonds flat, oil up slightly, and gold down slightly in holding below $1,100. Futures are down slightly state-side. But there are a lot of crosscurrents; as of this writing, most of the big cap techs are higher (AMZN, AAPL, GOOG all up over a point). Today will be a headline-driven very busy morning. Focus on the earnings and relative strength plays, but make that focus searing today. Be exceptionally quick to exit positions when wrong as things can get out of hand pretty quickly (and happily vice versa) on a day like today when anything can happen at any time.

Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

YHOO- decent earnings

GILD- great earnings

SANM- great earnings

DV- great earnings

BRK/B- to be added to S&P 500

KTCC- great earnings

ALTR- great earnings

MOLX- good earnings

PLT- good earnings

MTH- decent earnings

ELY- decent earnings

LXK- closed near a high

VCBI- closed near a high

AAPL, SBUX- featured on “Mad Money” last night

ROK- good earnings

TEL- good earnings

WLP- good earnings

AAI- decent earnings

POT- upgraded by Bank of America Merrill

ATI- decent earnings

HES- good earnings

DKS- pre-announced positive earnings guidance

MNI- great earnings

UAUA- good earnings

COP- decent earnings

STJ- decent earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

QLGC- poor earnings

SYK- poor earnings

TPX- poor earnings

WMS- poor earnings

CBPO- closed near a low amid negative accusations from Seeking Alpha

CME, ICE- closed near lows

GASS- closed near a low after announcing the sale of a few vessels

ZION- near total reversal after posting good earnings

GS- closed near a low

AMZN- closed near a low, but upgraded by Kauffman

X- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

COF- closed near a low

PX- lukewarm earnings

BA- poor earnings

CAT- poor earnings

VLO- poor earnings

ITW- poor earnings



Earnings:

WED JAN 27 BEFORE

AAI ABT ATI

BA BLK CAT

COP EWBC GD

HES ITW MNI

MWV NYB OSIS

PX ROK SAP

SII SO STJ

SWK TEL UAUA

USG UTX VLO

WLP

WED JAN 27 AFTER

ACF BMC BYI

CCI CLS CTXS

CVD FLEX GMCR

HBI HRS ISIL

LRCX MUR NE

NFLX NSC OI

QCOM RYL SOA

SYMC TER VAR

WERN


Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

No comments:

Post a Comment