On September 16, this post was placed on the blog:
http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=unchanged (please scroll down to the post )
I’ve literally written on the theme of trading ‘unchanged’ in this space moreso than any other topic since I’ve had the honor and privilege to have been asked to pen it. But I think it’s vitally important to make sure with one crystal clear example of exactly what is I for one look for in an “unchanged” trade as I am consistently seeing ‘ideas’ which tend to be losing trades. A few weeks ago, for instance, I was intensely monitoring the progress of TIVO after they reported their earnings shortly after the close. The company reported earnings that were in-line, but warned on its revenue guidance. Sure enough, the stock traded a bit lower initially. However, TIVO gradually crept back up. I noted out loud and in our chatroom that TIVO was a good buy thru unchanged (11). The reason for this was quite simple (to me anyway): the stock could not stay down on bad news. I do not have any idea why the stock could not stay down, but that is utterly irrelevant. It becomes a matter of psychology. I know if I have 10,000 shares short and the stock goes positive on bad news, I will sweat and cover. I also know that most people with big positions think the same way. So, what typically happens in cases like this is that there is a violent spike once the stock gets positive on the session. Sure enough, TIVO rallied about 60 cents in a couple of minutes. That is it. That is the whole trade. There is no other (relatively) easy trade to do in it. Yet, so many times, the stock in this type of situation eventually trades back down to unchanged and inevitably, someone asks if it is a trade through unchanged. Very rarely is this is the case. The best trades require a trigger. When TIVO got back to 11, I was asked if I thought it was a short simply because it had fallen from 11.60 back to 11 (unchanged…without stagnation at that). To me, that is complete gambling. No other word for it. I look to do this “unchanged” type trade the 1st time thru that demarcation level…not the 2nd, 3rd, or 8th in most circumstances; the only major exception ot this rule is when the markets are very volatile and one is trying to play the unchanged level as a relative strength indicator. But for 99% of circumstances, this piece pretty much sums everything accurately. So, all else equal, when looking to buy or short something through unchanged on the session, make sure you know precisely why you are doing it rather than just merely doing it.
Markets in Asia rebounded overnight with Tokyo and Hong Kong both up just over 1.5%. The firm tone continued in Europe with the bourses up between 0.5% and 0.7% across the board. Oil and gold are both ahead slightly with the dollar a tinge stronger and bonds a tinge weaker. S&P futures are broadly higher although the NASDAQ is lagging on the heels of poor earnings at QCOM and worries about AAPL’s device. Financials and other techs are stronger across the board. Look for a choppy session with some weakness coming into selected techs as the day progresses but a firm tone for the broader market. The range will likely be narrower with a quieter day than yesterday. Focus on the myriad of earnings out there as well as plays which seem relatively strong or weak as compared to the overall market.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
GMCR- good earnings
NFLX- great earnings
ALGN- great earnings
OI- good earnings
BMC- good earnings
VAR- decent earnings
RYL- decent earnings
TSCO- good earnings
NE- good earnings
HRS- good earnings
SOA- great earnings
DV- closed near a high after posting great earnings
GILD- closed near a high after posting great earnings
BA- closed near a high after posting earnings
V, MA- closed near their highs
CPE- closed near a high after it received a payment from the Department of Interior to reimburse the company for overpayment of royalties at one of its oil fields
LRCX- decent earnings
SWKS- featured on “Mad Money” last night
BLL- good earnings
CAH- good earnings
CHKP- good earnings
EK- good earnings
F- good earnings
LIFE- good earnings
NTY- good earnings
OSK- good earnings
TYC- good earnings
UA- good earnings
BDX- good earnings
ETRM- intends to submit an investigational device exemption application for a clinical trial for its Maestro RC System
AVT- decent earnings
CY- decent earnings
RCL- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
QCOM- terrible earnings
CTXS- terrible earnings
NSC- poor earnings
AMLN- poor earnings
MUR- poor earnings
SYMC- poor earnings
TTEK- poor earnings
BAX- poor earnings
LLL- poor earnings
MOT- poor earnings
POT- poor earnings
AZN- poor earnings
Earnings:
THURS JAN 28 BEFORE
AVT AZN BAX
BC BDX BEN
BLL BMS BMY
CP CAH CELG
CHKP CL CNX
COL CY D
DHR DRE EK
EL EQT GR
HP JBLU JNS
KSU LIFE LLL
LLY LMT MJN
MMM MO MOT
NOK NTY ODFL
ORI OSK OXPS
OXY PG POT
RCL RTN SY
T TROW TWC
TXT TYC UA
UMPQ WCC WDR
XEL ZMH
THURS JAN 28 AFTER
AMCC AMZN ARBA
BCR CAVM CB
CYBS CYN DRIV
EMN FII GNW
INFA JNPR KLAC
LEG MSFT MXIM
PAR RHI RMBS
SNDK THOR TSRA
VPRT VSEA
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
No comments:
Post a Comment