There were two major factors which contributed to yesterday’s sell-off. First, Alcoa (AA) had a very weak earnings report. Think about it- metals prices have been roaring higher yet AA still came in under expectations in barely earning any money for the quarter. I mean, it is the best of times for aluminum yet AA could not get out of its own way. There is of course some debate as to whether the miss was AA-centric or if it was sector-wide. The market did not wait to ask questions however as there was a broad sell-off in the commodities sectors as stocks like FCX and POT came in quite hard. However, the other factor which contributed to the weakness was a bit more notable: the Chinese government raised the reserve ratio of its banks to cool its economy. Basically, the move which wasn’t expected until April was put into place yesterday as a credit boom threatened to spark inflation much less create asset bubbles. This and a few other moves by the Chinese central bank signals that the Chinese are fearful that the pace of loans has become unsustainable and indicate that they are following through on their pledge to pre-empt spiking inflation. This was viewed as negative for the broader domestic stock markets because it indicates it may be time for the ‘exit strategy’ to start taking place plus it shows that the engine of growth for the world may be overheating which could have inflationary consequences for the rest of the world. Also, it signals that whatever recovery has taken place may stall now since China is putting the breaks on. What will eventually occur is of course well beyond my knowledge base, but I do know that we must watch the flow of earnings as well as news flowing out from China for the next several weeks to get our trade ideas and market direction prognostications on an intra-day basis.
Markets in Asia fell overnight with Tokyo down 1.3% and Hong Kong down 2.6% on the Chinese central bank mechinations. In Europe, however, the trend has shifted a bit with most bourses just above unchanged and Germany up 0.5%. Oil is down 1% with everything else quiet. This is leading to a resumption in the uptick in the overall market with futures broadly higher. Look for a very quiet session overall with very difficult day trading conditions. Earnings season is coming, but news flow is very slow right now; focus on some of the microcaps and sectors which are showing notable strength (Chinese portals) or weakness.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
ILMN- closed near a high after issuing positive earnings guidance intra-day
QLGC- pre-announced decent earnings
LUNA- closed near a high after announcing emergence from chapter 11 bankruptcy
EVK- closed near a high
MGM- closed near a high after receiving an upgrade
RXII- closed near a high
SORL- closed near a high
BIDU- soaring on rumors GOOG may pull out of China
AA, CLNE, ECA, MGA, LEA- featured on “Mad Money” last night
BCRX- partner Shionogi received marketing and manufacturing approval for Peramivir in Japan
TPI- received Chinese SFDA approval for Olfoxacin and Fleroxacin
SVA- obtained fifth H1N1 vaccine order from Chinese government
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
EPB- share offering
HIG- island reversal in closing near a low despite posting great earnings
GAP- closed near a low after issuing terrible earnings
SEED- closed on a low in a fairly notable intra-day reversal
FMBI- share offering
CRM- closed near a low after announcing a notes offering
GOOG- may pull out of China
Earnings:
WED JAN 13 BEFORE
None today
WED JAN 13 AFTER
ZZ
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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