The Epiphany Trading Blog

This blog will only be viewable on www.CapitalMarketForum.com going forward.

Capital Market Forum Chatroom

Epiphany will now be participating in the Capital Market Forum's chat room located at
http://www.epiphanycapitalmanagement.com/epiphroom1.html

Epiphany Trading Videos

Thursday, January 14, 2010

THURS. JAN. 14- 1Q Earnings Season

Monday afternoon kicked off the unofficial start to this quarter’s earnings season with Alcoa (AAL) symbolically leading the way. However, the true start of earnings season occurs this afternoon when tech bellwether Intel (INTC) reports their earnings and financial bulwark J.P. Morgan (JPM) reports tomorrow. Next week, the reports start flooding in. Whereas the last few quarters, a company beating its earnings but missing revenue growth seemed to be the norm as cost cutting was prevalent, we should have a more normalized season. Already as was shown with the AA report, despite thrashing revenue guidance, the fact that the bottom line was sharply below earning’s estimates is what brought the stock down sharply on Tuesday. It is time for Corporate America to show true earnings growth according to the markets so pay particular attention to quarterly earnings, keep one eye on revenues, and especially watch forward guidance as that will give the true shape that any given company is in overall much less on a trading basis.

Markets in Asia were mixed with Tokyo up 1.6% and Hong Kong Down fractionally. Markets moved more uniformly in Europe with the bourses up about ¼%. All else is quiet. Futures are slightly weaker on the weak retail sales data. Look for a very quiet day with a slight downside bias ahead of options expiration tomorrow with relatively low news flow. Focus on the stocks in the news, tiny microcaps, and stay away from any scalping as movement will be at a paucity today in all likelihood.

Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

THOR- closed near a high

TWC- closed near a high

RIMM, AAPL- closed near a high

GMCR- closed near a high

WLP- closed near a high

UAUA- closed near a high

JOYG- closed near a high

MON- closed near a high

LAB- announced it is selling its NYSE market making division to Barclay’s

MSPD- closed near a high after it pre-announced positive 1Q guidance

ASTC- closed near a high

JAZZ- closed near a high

ARST, SQM, DPZ- featured on “Mad Money” last night

OSTE- pre-announced positive revenue guidance

WSM- pre-announced positive earnings guidance

SAP- pre-announced positive earnings guidance

SNSS- announced publication of nonclinical Coreloxin data in lukemias

TSTR- FCC granted the company licensure to begin broadcasting

ETRM- positive drug study results

BNVI- positive phase 1B results from Bezielle trial

AONE- signed battery supply agreement with Fisker Automotive

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

GAP- closed near day’s intra-day low on follow-through from Monday’s poor earnings

ROSG- closed near a high after positive drug study results were published online, but announced a share offering after the close

ZZ- beat earnings estimates, but traded lower after-hours

SEED- poor earnings

BGG- poor earnings






Earnings:

THURS JAN 14 BEFORE

BGG PKX SEED


THURS JAN 14 AFTER

INTC SHFL


Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

No comments:

Post a Comment