Recently, one of the cable networks started showing re-runs of "All In The Family." I caught about five minutes of an episode a few nights ago. I couldn't help notice that the episode- made in 1972- featured several notable themes. A battle over secondhand smoke. Commentary about the political mores of the time. And most relevantly, there was a lot of discourse about rising inflation- most notably in things like food and fuel as well as arguments over the Vietnam War. For the first time in a long time, the theme of "the more things change, the more they stay the same" really rang through my mind. What are the themes affecting the markets today? Rising fuel prices. Rising food prices. War. It provides a lot of perspective as we day trade to realize that the major factors affecting markets were present many years ago and will be many years after my trading career is long over. We don't so much get lost in the forest among the trees so much as guessing which leaves are gonna fall and when- but sometimes it's good to realize that a lot of what we do in day trading is simply a game- and that's all it'll ever be.
Markets overnight were generally weaker in Asia with Tokyo down about 1.3% and Hong Kong off just under 0.5%. In Europe, markets are a bit more mixed with the major bourses trading between down 0.3% and up 0.1%. The dollar is slightly weaker across the board, gold is up 1%, and oil is notably up 2%. The news flow isn’t great either with Greek debt downgraded and Oman’s debt being placed on watch. Consumer credit ($3.3 billion) will come out at 3PM. Futures traded sharply lower overnight but came right back up…fell back…and then rallied anew. It is very impressive and admittedly a bit puzzling that stocks are utterly shaking off oil. But we gotta trade what we see. Off-hand, since logic is not present, it’d seem that stocks would should hold their gains today in a choppy stock-centric session. The focus will likely be on the rare earths, small cap biotech in the news, energies, metals, and relative strength/weakness plays.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
ITMN- closed near a high on more follow through following European approval of the company’s lung disease drug
ISS- closed near a high after posting earnings
COO- closed near a high after posting earnings
UDRL- closed near a high after posting earnings
MNOV- closed near a high after partnering with Zhejiang Medicine in China
NFLX- closed near a high
LEI- closed near a high
VRTX- closed near a high
A- closed near a high
PKT- closed near a high
HDY- closed near a high
SINA- closed near a high
NDAQ- rumored to be bought out by the LSE
MCP, REE, AVL-China’s commerce minister noted over the weekend that curtailing exports are necessary
TOMO- to be acquired by ARAY for $3.15 in cash plus .1648 ARAY valuing TOMO at 4.80 as of Friday
JRCC- decent earnings and announced acquisition
DQ- decent earnings
MBND- exceeding 2010 revenue and EBITDA guidance
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
CF- closed near a low
RIMM- closed near a low
KNDL- closed near a low again after posting bad earnings on Wednesday afternoon
CIEN- poor earnings
Earnings:
MON MAR 7 BEFORE
CIEN DQ
MON MAR 7 AFTER
CASY HMIN JAZZ
PWRD THO URBN
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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