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Tuesday, February 8, 2011

TUES. FEB. 8- In With The New...

Recently, I was in a checkout line at Staples with my daughter, Rayna. There was a massive bin of Silly Bandz- last year's arguably hottest product. What would have cost several dollars last year for a pack of 24 animal bands was marked down to $1. I asked someone there about it and was told the store had put everything out in an effort to unload them. I had to go back a week later...and almost none had been sold. Fads like this have come and gone through time from Cabbage Patch dolls to Garbage Pail Kid stickers. But it's been the same in day trading. First, awesome day trading stocks in the past such as WCOM or KIDE permeated the trade blotters of many day traders including myself on a nearly daily basis. But times constantly change and the docket of stocks to trade constantly evolve as well. It's up to the trader to constantly seek out new ideas- and realize when the time to trade other stocks has passed (declining volume, loss of liquidity, et al). The other note is that certain types of trades were great but no longer exist. One of my favorite types of trades to do, for instance, would be to buy or short from a huge pool of liquidity near an intra-day high or low. With the advent of algorithms and increased liquidity overall, this trade has been all but phased out. It's quite commonplace now for a stock like BIDU or XOM to have an offer for 250,000 shares on an offer, the liquidity to gradually disappear, the stock to rally six cents, and then fall 32 cents in the next minute. Sometimes the stocks reassert their trend...sometimes not but that type of picking away at liquidity action for a quick gain is no longer viable. Thus, in the vein of the Silly Bandz, be aware that the pool of stocks to trade as well as the types of trades out there constantly change and we as day traders need to be pro-active in evolving with them.

Markets were mixed overnight throughout the world with Tokyo up 0.4%, Hong Kong down 0.3%, Frankfurt up 0.2%, and London down 0.2%. Like I said, mixed! Oil is notably weaker in trading 1.5% lower, but gold is flat. The dollar is off a little and bonds are flat. There’s no economic data today. Stock futures have been drifting in a narrow range overnight with a slight downside bias. Look for a quiet session today with a lot of choppiness with movement not far from the unchanged line. The focus will be on earnings, small cap biotechs such as OCLS, small cap momentum plays moving around yesterday which closed near their highs, and takeover rumor plays such as BIG.

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

MERC- closed near a high

KNL- closed near a high

AIG- closed near a high

POT- closed near a high

AAPL- closed near a high

CMI- closed near a high

RPRX- closed near a high

IGOI- closed near a high

HILL- closed near a high

CSL- closed near a high after posting earnings

TGA- closed near a high as fears for the company’s business cooled re Egypt

HAIN, LULU- featured on “Mad Money” last night

HRLY- received $19/share cash bid from KTOS

CNXT- received unsolicited bid from Golden Gate which would top bid from SMSC; the price is $2.35-$2.45 per share

CSPI- decent earnings

SNCR- decent earnings

XIDE- great earnings

MGM- upgraded at Bank of America

MT- decent earnings

SVVS- decent earnings

VSH- decent earnings

OCLS- received new FDA 510(k) clearance for microcyn-based dermatology hydrogel for management of atopic dermatitis


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

FCX- closed near a low

GFC- closed near a low

NFLX- closed near a low

DHR- closed near a low in a near island reversal after announcing buyout of ESV

TRGL- closed near a low amid rumors of France conducting studies on shale oil and gas

HUM- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

SYY- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

CPW- closed near a low after announcing a share offering

FMC- bad earnings

BDX- bad earnings

GLUU- bad earnings

VECO- poor earnings

LNCR- poor earnings

OPXA- share offering

PFG- poor earnings

AVP- poor earnings

CVH- poor earnings

BZH- poor earnings

ELN- poor earnings

NYX- poor earnings

TEVA- poor earnings

ALLT- poor earnings

BR- poor earnings

FSLR- negative talk out of Morgan Stanley re solar 2011 global shipments


Earnings:

TUES FEB 8 BEFORE

AGCO AVP BR

BZH CHBT CNC

CVH ELN ETR

FIS GET HGG

MAC MLM MT

NYX SLE SVVS

TEVA TIN VSH


TUES FEB 8 AFTER

ATML AXL BGC

CERN CMP CRL

DIS GIL ILMN

MOTR OPEN PBI

PPDI PPS PTP

RNR TTWO XL


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

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