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Thursday, January 13, 2011

THURS. JAN. 13- A Business Day Following A NYC Snowfall

On Tuesday night, I was up quite late in terms of going through some busy work for yesterday, preparing for what may happen (backing up files, making sure my system worked at home, et al), and I wanted to get an early jump on my shoveling in digging out a few inches of snow around 11:30PM. I awakened at 3:45AM, did some of my normal work, and then went outside to spend awhile shoveling a stunning 11 inches of snow that had fallen over the last five hours. It then took 25 minutes to get my car out of the driveway due to local plows. Finally, on my way, I stopped at the end of my development to help someone (who turned out to be a nurse at a local hospital) who had gotten her car stuck as not only was it the right thing to do, the fact of the matter is that her job is much more important than mine. Upon getting in my car, I realized I was stuck and dug myself out. As I was driving in, the snow began falling incredibly hard to the point whereby I could see the car in front of me- and that was about it. WCBS Radio reported that it was snowing at the rate of four inches an hour where I was. I eventually thankfully got here safe and sound. If you’ve read this far, please don’t think for a second I am seeking sympathy. In fact, if I had to start my work day like this every day, I would do so happily. Some of my best trading days tend to happen on snow days particularly when the market has a decent sized move. There were a dearth of participants at work for legitimate reasons such as trains not running to roads not being cleared to watching beloved children who were staying home from school to illegitimate reasons such as sloth. But what tends to occur is that individual stock moves become greatly exaggerated much less smoother due to fewer traders (and computers) as well as lack of preparation by many traders at work who arrived late and often scramble to catch up (which is why I started my work before I even started shoveling so as to not have to worry about it upon getting to the office). Stocks with news such as ITT splitting itself into three pieces closed ahead sharply, but it actually traded around 65 (up 12 ¼ or so) pre-open as an example. Thus from the get go, opportunities were plentiful with many stocks moving rapidly. The only way to get particularly hurt on a day like yesterday is to get on the wrong side of something, stubbornly refuse to exit, and add to the position. So, I knew as I was going through a fairly rough morning, I managed to do it serenely as I was aware the kind of day yesterday was historically for me- and I also knew I had a jump for the rest of the week as I will be able to carry forth yesterday’s reactions into the scope of today’s and tomorrow’s trading as well in knowing how stocks acted yesterday.


Markets overnight were generally stronger in Asia with Hong Kong up 0.5% and Tokyo closing ahead 0.7%. It’s a little more mixed in Europe with Frankfurt up 0.1% and London down 0.2%. The dollar is flat against the yen and slightly weaker against the euro. Oil and gold are lightly mixed. Continuing claims data came in slightly worse than expected with PPI generally in-line. Futures are a tinge stronger. Look for a relatively quiet day with all of the economic news out and not much else going on corporate-wise ahead of the earnings crush next week. The focus will likely be on the financials, the earnings plays such as INFY, the momentum plays from yesterday particularly the small caps one with news, and relative weakness and strength plays. But unlike yesterday, I am not looking for a whole lot today.

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

NVDA- closed near a high in what seems to be a delayed reaction to the positive news flow earlier in the week as well as a few brokerage upgrades

PDFS- closed near a high

APOL- closed near a high

NAK- closed near a high

AAPL- closed near a high

NFLX- closed near a high

BRN- closed near a high

ANW- closed near a high

FBP- closed near a high

JAZZ- closed near a high

SWIR- closed near a high

GRIS- closed near a high

EMMS- closed near a high

POT, MOS, MON, AGU- closed near their highs amid a MON upgrade and rumors of a major potash deal in China

ZLC- closed near a high after posting great same-store sales data

LULU- closed near a high after raising guidance

FUL- closed near a high after raising guidance

NE- closed near a high after it announced its addition to the S&P 500

EXFO- decent earnings

KBR- decent earnings

BCRX- relatively positive Peramivir phase III safety results from a trial

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

ACI- closed near a low after warning on earnings guidance

WWAYU- closed near a low

AIG- closed near a low

LFT- closed near a low

BBBB- poor earnings guidance

DRWI- bad earnings

INFY- disappointing revenue forecast

Earnings:

THURS JAN 13 BEFORE

CBSH INFY

THURS JAN 13 AFTER

INTC SHFL


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

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