I love driving. Once upon a time a long long time ago, I'd take miscellaneous car trips by myself or with friends if for no other reason that I enjoy travel much less being on the open road. Well, I like most people have driven enough to know that a large majority of the time, I know what to expect from the drive. Maybe a little traffic, hopefully a lot of the open road, and some good music. However, I know if it rains, I must change the way I drive. If it is snowing, I'll drive even more conservatively and know that I better know a different set of rules (such as what to do if my car starts to spin out). Well, this same principle definitely applies to stock trading. Whether trading a market (say futures or SPY or DIA or QQQQ), general stocks within a market, or a specific handful of stocks, the rules can change. For instance, major news will likely cause a stock to move much faster than normal; if this is the case, slice down on your trading size. If the stock is moving seemingly randomly, simply try to get a feel for it. If the volume tends to be one-sided with a stock trending opposite of what one feels the news flow would dictate, assume that the one sided move can continue much less become exaggerated. Thus if the behavior of a market or stock you're trading suddenly changes particularly in an increase in velocity and volume, view it as an opportunity rather than a burden all the awhile adjusting your normal trading style.
Markets were mixed in Asia with Tokyo down 0.3% but Hong Kong up 0.8%. However, there was a major development last night in tax policy development when President Obama seemed to form a deal with top Republican lawmakers in extending the President Bush (II)-era tax rates yet tinkering with payroll tax policy in an effort to stimulate improvement. This is being viewed very positively and has sparked 1% to 1 ¼% gains in London and Frankfurt. Gold and oil continue to rally with the dollar a bit weaker against the yen and euro. The only economic number of note is Consumer Credit (-$ 2.3 billion) due out at 3PM. The only other development to watch will be how the vote in Ireland goes toward approving their austerity budget. Assuming there is no surprise out of Ireland, the rally will likely sustain itself all day in a narrow trading band but on decent turnover with a good bit of action in between. The focus will likely be on the earnings plays, the myriad of stocks with share offerings, the litmus of Citicorp now that the weight of the government is off of it shoulders, relative weakness plays particularly in the first and last hours of NYSE session trading, the many small cap biotechs out with news, and stocks in play in the merger realm such as GAS.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
MCP, REE- closed near highs in the rare earth sector
WLT- closed near a high amid continuing positive buzz regarding its Western Coal acquisition
VRGY- closed near a high on thinking that it may receive a raised takeover bid
RDWR- closed near a high on rumors of an imminent buyout
PPO- closed near a high after an upgrade
CCME- closed near a high after an upgrade
SPPI- positive Zevalin phase II monotherapy data for Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
HWAY- raised earnings guidance
PLAB- decent earnings
PBY- decent earnings
NFLX- closed near a high
X- closed near a high
SHZ- closed near a high
FSLR- closed near a high
AMZN- closed near a high
MGN- closed near a high
ONCY- closed near a high
AFOP- closed near a high
SURG- closed near a high
CTCT- closed near a high
GKK- closed near a high after selling some assets to SLG in raising significant cash
JBL, WY, NBL, GR. WLP- mentioned positively on “Mad Money” last night
AZO- decent earnings
MMM- decent earnings guidance
CYTX- entered equity deal with Astellas Ph. To sell $10 million in equity at $7/share
GAS- merging with AGL for $21.20/share in cash and .08382 shares of AGL
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
BKS- island reversal in closing near a low despite speculation hedge fund manager Ackman may be readying takeover bid
CELG- closed near a low amid negative reports about its Revlimid product
DG- closed near a low after announcing a share offering
FSYS- guided revenue guidance lower and doing share offering
GERN- share offering
SWS- convertible notes offering
ABMD- ended Protect II study early due to some unanticipated confounding variables in the results
RLD- share offering of 7.82 million shares at 27.75
Earnings:
TUES DEC 7 BEFORE
AZO MTN TLB
TUES DEC 7 AFTER
CASY COO HRB
MW
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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