TUES. NOV. 9- Trading When It's Time To Trade

Part of me simply wants to re-post a blog from a few weeks ago and leave things be. I won’t do that although the link is here: http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=the+charlie+brown+torture

In the piece, I desperately tried to hammer home the notion of not doing every single trade you see because particularly when the overall market is stagnant, many of the trades you do during the quiet periods will result in losses. The more trades you do, the more you lose. It sounds to me like a recipe for rocketing oneself to the poorhouse, paraphrasing one of TV’s renowned philosophers, Al Bundy of “Married…With Children.” Yet despite my repeated pleas that this was one of the more important blogs I’d written, I don’t know if I quite grasped the attention of all that many people. All day in the chatroom and orally, I heard of many set-ups which were simply momentum plays during times in which the S&P 500 was trading in a two hour range of two points. I heard/read comments like “I’m bored.” Or “I’m just trying to find something.” Or worse yet, people calling out (and doing) plays in which I noted three or four times that movement was likely not to be exaggerated (and I was exonerated more often than not). It’d be so easy for me to day-in, day-out comment how great stuff looks or how one should “load up” on hyperliquid stocks. But I cannot do that because I have to look myself in the mirror. Things are gradually slowing down and will only get less intense barring some piece of unforeseen circumstance as we approach Thanksgiving. So, please, take advantage of the still plentiful opportunities out there and do them in size –but only at the right time- and do not trap yourself in oh so many plays that look oh so tempting, but just, frankly, result in losses net-net. It’s OK to trade things small when things aren’t moving dramatically just to test out the waters, but it is financial suicide to treat a play that one would do at, say, 9:36AM ET with the market moving with a trade at 12:11PM when the market is barely budging.

Markets were down in Asia overnight after Chinese government officials against issued bombastic comments about QE2 stoking fears of protectionism. Tokyo closed down 0.4% and Hong Kong was off 1%. However, the opposite occurred in Europe as a weaker dollar and continued ascent in dollar-denominated assets sparked a rally with bourses up either side of 0.5%. Gold is up just shy of 1% with oil up ½%. The dollar is slightly weaker against the euro but more so against the yen with the dollar-yen around 80.60 now. Futures state-side are up marginally. The only economic data of the day is Wholesale Inventories (0.6%) at 10AM ET. Look for another quiet day overall with stocks likely to maintain a slight upside bias. Keep an eye on the dollar and gold if moves there get exacerbated. The focus stock-wise will likely be on the earnings plays, the solars with a bevy of the smaller ones having reported earnings, select play in the news such has DF with its CEO having resigned, and relative weakness and strength plays in what will likely be a generally neutral tape.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

PCLN- great earnings

SLXP- decent earnings

MDR- decent earnings

LDK- great earnings

HOLX- decent earnings

UDR- decent earnings

APEI- great earnings

ANR- closed near a high

SCOK- closed near a high

IDT- closed near a high after announcing a spin-off of its energy division

CGA- closed near a high

JOBS- closed near a high

BORN- closed near a high

CCJ- closed near a high

INS- closed near a high

UEC- closed near a high

ASH- closed near a high after announcing the sale of its distribution business

FOSL- great earnings

JASO- good earnings

TYC- decent earnings

COV- decent earnings

YHOO- takeover speculation that Alibaba’s founder was approached to see if he was interested in taking part in a bid to buy the company

ATLS- to be bought out for 43.34 by CVX- 38.25 in cash and 5.09 in pro-rata APL shares

EBIX- decent earnings

NCT- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

RAX- poor earnings

CLNE- poor earnings

MFN- poor earnings

SNTS- poor earnings

MR- poor earnings

WCRX- closed near a low after announcing poor earnings

GS- closed near a low

BTN- closed near a low

BLK- share offering of about 51 million @ 163/share

DF- poor earnings and CFO resigned

SOLF- poor earnings

AKAM- Seeking Alpha reports that company will likely lose business to LVLT and LLNW

Earnings:

TUES NOV 9 BEFORE

CHD COV CRME

CRZO DF EBIX

ENER FOSL HOGS

JASO MMC ROK

SOLF TNDM TYC

TUES NOV 9 AFTER

AONE HRBN IGT

LOPE MBI RAH

TSLA URS



Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President