My wife went into labor in the middle of the night for both of my kids. I had not one, but two late night dashes to the hospital with my younger one (Samara) actually arriving at 5:25AM. It’s funny what one remembers about those times, but something that the obstetrician told me came right back to me. I was joking around with him to ease the tension a bit about 45 minutes before my Samara was born. I commented how we should really keep doing this in the middle of the night. He laughed a little. But I quickly noticed how tired he was and asked him if being on call ever weighed on him. He said “It comes with the territory and it’s what I gotta do if I want to deliver babies.” Basically what he said was so simple…so obvious…but so important. Other than the mommies planning C-sections, it is of course impossible to predict exactly when a woman will give birth so arriving at the hospital at 4AM is something one just has to do if one wants to be in the baby delivering game. It’s the same with trading. We all have our routines as far as how much time we need. But it is of paramount importance to adjust upwards and downwards the time we need to be in the office based on the markets. I was incredulous yesterday when someone commented in our chat room that he’d left his desk for lunch. Yesterday was one of the more frenetic days in recent memory. The concept of leaving my desk yesterday for more than a couple of minutes to take a much needed walk to rest eyes and clear my head was beyond my comprehension. I know that as the holidays come closer, it’s going to slow down in all likelihood so the long lunch breaks can be taken then- not yesterday- for those inclined to get a sandwich rather than try to earn a few extra hundred dollars. I am also always stupefied beyond belief when someone walks out of the door before 15 minutes after the close. Forget the fact of being woefully unprepared for the next day. How can one have time to properly review one’s trades for the day when it is freshest in one’s mind? But on point, on a day like yesterday when prices moved dramatically, it is imperative that people understand what is going on and what their own trading meant to them. I don’t expect people to begin studying the overnight markets at 4:45AM ET (rather than my normal 5:30AMish) as I did on a day like yesterday when I knew it’d be busy. Furthermore, as a day trader, I in no way feel that my work is as important as that of an obstetrician. But like any good obstetrician, I know when I have to be at work and adjust accordingly to pointedly be there when need be.
Markets overnight in Asia continued to rally with Hong Kong up 1.4% and Tokyo up an impressive 2.9%. Markets are up slightly throughout Europe though on the heels of the jobs report. Gold is down almost 1% but oil is up ½%. Bonds are down notably with the dollar stronger across the board. The jobs report came in much stronger than expected (151K jobs created vs 91K expected). Pending home sales (2.5%) are out at 10AM and Consumer Credit is out at 3PM (-$3.5B). The reaction this morning was muted, but not surprising. There was a flurry of action to the upside, but as the dollar strengthened, the rally dissipated. For the day, everything should be much more muted. With the dollar so strong, some profit taking should be expected but if it doesn’t happen almost immediately, the markets will likely have a mini-short covering rally. Regardless, the deltas of the move should be less than yesterday. Focus on the many earnings plays out, the momentum plays from yesterday if the markets get fast (particularly the smaller caps closing at or near their highs), and the relative strength plays.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
JAZZ- good earnings
MGA- good earnings
RBCN- decent earnings
SBUX- decent earnings
BID- decent earnings
NILE- decent earnings
FLR- decent earnings
EZPW- decent earnings
WRLS- decent earnings
TTMI- decent earnings
TEVA, HAIN- featured on “Mad Money” last night
GS- closed near a high
SHS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
FCX- closed near a high
BUCY- closed near a high
JOYG- closed near a high
MAC- closed near a high after posting good earnings
TBL- closed near a high after posting good earnings
SNCR- closed near a high
HURN- closed near a high after posting good earnings
LPS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
CXO- closed near a high after posting good earnings
CIR- closed near a high after posting good earnings
MTZ- closed near a high after posting good earnings
VOLC- closed near a high after posting good earnings
CHSI- closed near a high after posting good earnings
SMSI- closed near a high after posting good earnings
GTS- closed near a high
JPM- closed near a high
LVS- closed near a high
IBM- closed near a high
NEWN- closed near a high
MXC- closed near a high
SCCO- closed near a high
JWN- closed near a high
VMC- closed near a high
TLEO- closed near a high
AWI- decent earnings
CVH- decent earnings
SOL- decent earnings
RSTI- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
SWKS- poor earnings
CF- bad earnings
CROX- bad earnings
RRGB- terrible earnings
MCHP- poor earnings
MHK- poor earnings
MED- poor earnings
AMKR- poor earnings
JDSU- poor earnings
DLB- poor earnings
MRX- poor earnings
DXCM- poor earnings
CCIX- poor earnings
INSP- poor earnings
CLWR- poor earnings
RSG- poor earnings
SD- poor earnings
IOC- convertible notes offering
DNDN- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
LIOX- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
VRTX- closed near a low
FFIV- closed near a low
KFT- poor earnings
GCA- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
APOL- closed near a low after a probe into its business by the Federal government widened
AIG- poor earnings
CEDC- poor earnings
FCN- poor earnings
JKS- follow-on offering at 36
Earnings:
FRI NOV 5 BEFORE
AMT AWI BZH
CVH DISH FCN
FIG FWLT MIR
PXP RSTI SOL
VTR YRCW
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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