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Friday, November 5, 2010

FRI. NOV. 5- Being There When You Need To Be There

My wife went into labor in the middle of the night for both of my kids. I had not one, but two late night dashes to the hospital with my younger one (Samara) actually arriving at 5:25AM. It’s funny what one remembers about those times, but something that the obstetrician told me came right back to me. I was joking around with him to ease the tension a bit about 45 minutes before my Samara was born. I commented how we should really keep doing this in the middle of the night. He laughed a little. But I quickly noticed how tired he was and asked him if being on call ever weighed on him. He said “It comes with the territory and it’s what I gotta do if I want to deliver babies.” Basically what he said was so simple…so obvious…but so important. Other than the mommies planning C-sections, it is of course impossible to predict exactly when a woman will give birth so arriving at the hospital at 4AM is something one just has to do if one wants to be in the baby delivering game. It’s the same with trading. We all have our routines as far as how much time we need. But it is of paramount importance to adjust upwards and downwards the time we need to be in the office based on the markets. I was incredulous yesterday when someone commented in our chat room that he’d left his desk for lunch. Yesterday was one of the more frenetic days in recent memory. The concept of leaving my desk yesterday for more than a couple of minutes to take a much needed walk to rest eyes and clear my head was beyond my comprehension. I know that as the holidays come closer, it’s going to slow down in all likelihood so the long lunch breaks can be taken then- not yesterday- for those inclined to get a sandwich rather than try to earn a few extra hundred dollars. I am also always stupefied beyond belief when someone walks out of the door before 15 minutes after the close. Forget the fact of being woefully unprepared for the next day. How can one have time to properly review one’s trades for the day when it is freshest in one’s mind? But on point, on a day like yesterday when prices moved dramatically, it is imperative that people understand what is going on and what their own trading meant to them. I don’t expect people to begin studying the overnight markets at 4:45AM ET (rather than my normal 5:30AMish) as I did on a day like yesterday when I knew it’d be busy. Furthermore, as a day trader, I in no way feel that my work is as important as that of an obstetrician. But like any good obstetrician, I know when I have to be at work and adjust accordingly to pointedly be there when need be.

Markets overnight in Asia continued to rally with Hong Kong up 1.4% and Tokyo up an impressive 2.9%. Markets are up slightly throughout Europe though on the heels of the jobs report. Gold is down almost 1% but oil is up ½%. Bonds are down notably with the dollar stronger across the board. The jobs report came in much stronger than expected (151K jobs created vs 91K expected). Pending home sales (2.5%) are out at 10AM and Consumer Credit is out at 3PM (-$3.5B). The reaction this morning was muted, but not surprising. There was a flurry of action to the upside, but as the dollar strengthened, the rally dissipated. For the day, everything should be much more muted. With the dollar so strong, some profit taking should be expected but if it doesn’t happen almost immediately, the markets will likely have a mini-short covering rally. Regardless, the deltas of the move should be less than yesterday. Focus on the many earnings plays out, the momentum plays from yesterday if the markets get fast (particularly the smaller caps closing at or near their highs), and the relative strength plays.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

JAZZ- good earnings

MGA- good earnings

RBCN- decent earnings

SBUX- decent earnings

BID- decent earnings

NILE- decent earnings

FLR- decent earnings

EZPW- decent earnings

WRLS- decent earnings

TTMI- decent earnings

TEVA, HAIN- featured on “Mad Money” last night

GS- closed near a high

SHS- closed near a high after posting good earnings

FCX- closed near a high

BUCY- closed near a high

JOYG- closed near a high

MAC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

TBL- closed near a high after posting good earnings

SNCR- closed near a high

HURN- closed near a high after posting good earnings

LPS- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CXO- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CIR- closed near a high after posting good earnings

MTZ- closed near a high after posting good earnings

VOLC- closed near a high after posting good earnings

CHSI- closed near a high after posting good earnings

SMSI- closed near a high after posting good earnings

GTS- closed near a high

JPM- closed near a high

LVS- closed near a high

IBM- closed near a high

NEWN- closed near a high

MXC- closed near a high

SCCO- closed near a high

JWN- closed near a high

VMC- closed near a high

TLEO- closed near a high

AWI- decent earnings

CVH- decent earnings

SOL- decent earnings

RSTI- decent earnings



Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

SWKS- poor earnings

CF- bad earnings

CROX- bad earnings

RRGB- terrible earnings

MCHP- poor earnings

MHK- poor earnings

MED- poor earnings

AMKR- poor earnings

JDSU- poor earnings

DLB- poor earnings

MRX- poor earnings

DXCM- poor earnings

CCIX- poor earnings

INSP- poor earnings

CLWR- poor earnings

RSG- poor earnings

SD- poor earnings

IOC- convertible notes offering

DNDN- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

LIOX- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

VRTX- closed near a low

FFIV- closed near a low

KFT- poor earnings

GCA- closed near a low after posting poor earnings

APOL- closed near a low after a probe into its business by the Federal government widened

AIG- poor earnings

CEDC- poor earnings

FCN- poor earnings

JKS- follow-on offering at 36

Earnings:

FRI NOV 5 BEFORE

AMT AWI BZH

CVH DISH FCN

FIG FWLT MIR

PXP RSTI SOL

VTR YRCW

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

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