“Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss.”
Many of you likely recognize that quote. If not, it is attributed to the character of Lou Mannheim in the movie “Wall Street.” There is a wide array of applicability for this quotation. (Spoiler alert)- In the movie, Mannheim says those words to the protagonist, Budd Foxx, just as he is about to be arrested for insider trading. But I must admit I’ve thought of these words often over the years particularly when I am alone and have some to think when I am in a delicate situation such as the day my father passed away. On a bit more mundane tone, I also think of these words every time I hit a ‘rough patch’ while trading. Heck, it doesn’t even have to be a lot of money. Well, yesterday was one of those times for me. At one point yesterday morning, I’d lost money on 12 of 13 trades (although only one of those losses was significant and I actually finished marginally ahead for the day when all was said and done by a few hundred dollars by doing a lot of very high-speed trades). Trading is an odds game and even if one tries to stack odds in one’s favor by being selective and doing homework, one can still be wrong a lot consecutively. So I went to take a quick walk as I tend to do but instead, I found myself drawn to walking toward the end of the hall and I just stared into outer space in remembering those words uttered by the classic actor Hal Holbrook in his fantastic supporting role in “Wall Street.” This leads to my first point- I immediately regained searing focus amid an intense calm. They say that part of the success of a successful athlete is his/her ability to hit a 97 mph fastball with a stadium full of people screaming or a free throat with 20,000 hissing- they simply blot out the noise. It’s part of reaching way down and finding yourself so to speak in forgetting what has happened and focusing on the immediate future. It is what one has to do to avoid falling even more into the abyss. The second point is that we as traders all have been “there.” “There” is not a fun place. “There” is the precipice of the abyss when nothing is going right trading-wise and the potential for doing things like letting emotion get in the way and not paying attention to logic can wreak havoc with one’s trading patterns. I know traders who have as recently as yesterday lost almost five points in such stocks like MCP simply because they refused to give up and take a loss. I know traders who have recently as yesterday gone short stocks that had earnings out and had positions go against them. I know traders who as recently as yesterday did not do basic homework on stocks they were trading to actually see that the stocks they were trading had earnings out yesterday. However, they defy common sense and preparation to make their own situations worse. Don’t be one of “them” else the abyss will swallow you up. I know. It has happened to me many times in the past. But it hasn’t completely swallowed me up else I wouldn’t be here pontificating after almost 15 years.
Markets in Asia were down overnight with Tokyo off a sharp 1.7% and Hong Kong down just over 0.5%. The trend remained negative in Europe with the bourses down anywhere from 0.3% to 0.6% across the exchanges. The dollar is mixed with it down against the yen but up almost a full euro. Bonds are flat. Gold is down very slightly with oil down ½%. GDP is due out at 8:30AM (2.0%), Employment Cost Index is due out at 8:30AM (0.5%, Chicago PMI is out at 9:45AM (57.5), and final Michigan Sentiment is due out at 9:55AM (68.0). Futures are lower on the falling euro. For the day, the dollar should continue to rule the roost with a lot of movement in individualized stocks due to the end of the fiscal year for mutual funds. Look for a very choppy session with exaggerated movements particularly in the morning and late afternoon in the top (and bottom) momentum stocks of 2010 with an additional focus on earnings plays, coals, plays related to the BP fiasco such as HAL, and takeover rumor stocks.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
GRRF- closed near a high after winning a Chin Broadcasting Corp. bid for China Mobile multimedia broadcasting network
CSTR- great earnings
MSFT- decent earnings
DECK- good earnings
EXPE- decent earnings
BMC- good earnings
MXIM- decent earnings
MWW- good earnings
PWER- great earnings
SWI- decent earnings
MIPS- featured on “Mad Money” last night
GS- closed near a high
ST- closed near a high after announcing a deal to acquire HON’s sensor business
CACI- closed near a high after posting good earnings
FMC- closed near a high after posting good earnings
IMAX- closed near a high after posting good earnings
TNAV- good earnings
FMR- received $16.50/share cash buyout bid from FFH
EL- good earnings
VVUS- Qnexa drug remained rejected but FDA still reviewing thus hope remains it will eventually be approved
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
FSLR- poor earnings
CLF- poor earnings
NUVA- terrible guidance
VRSN- poor earnings
GNW- poor earnings
AMAG- poor earnings, cutting workforce, and there’s a safety issue regarding one of its drugs
PIP- share offering
MET- poor earnings
SUN- poor earnings
SBAC- poor earnings
MTW- poor earnings
APKT- poor earnings
CERN- poor earnings
FLS- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
CRAY- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
OCLR- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
CDTID- plunged in closing near a low
MDAS- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
OPLK- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
GPRE- closed near a low after announcing a share offering
VCI- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
FN- closed near a low
REV- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
NCI- closed near a low after posting awful earnings
AON- poor earnings
EXAS- relatively poor results for its colon cancer drug
CVX- poor earnings
Earnings:
FRI OCT 29 BEFORE
ACI AON AXL
CEG CI CMC
CNX COL CVX
D EL HSIC
IPG ITT MRK
NDAQ NWL UFS
WY
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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