On Monday, the stock of progress Energy (PGN) was halted for five minutes upon declining 90% in one second. It instigated a circuit breaker designed to allow for single stocks to pause in the event of sudden movements typically caused by ‘fat fingers.’ According to the NASDAQ stock market, this was the case here with the plunge caused by an “inaccurate limit price entered by a trading firm.” What was interesting is that the system is designed to call for a stock to pause when a decline of 10% is in place yet it failed badly here. The stock was trading at 44.61 before the halt and should have been halted at 40.08. However, there were several dozen transactions intra-second which drove the price of the stock to 4.57. The interesting thing here is that the stock did not trade below 40.08 on the NYSE; rather, these transactions occurred only on electronic markets. There are two take-aways. First, when the SEC gave the thumbs-up to this mechanism a couple of weeks ago, the agency noted “When an individual stock trading pause is triggered, transactions could occur before the trading pause is fully implemented on all of the exchanges.” Furthermore, when that occurs, the stock exchanges are supposed to go over “all transactions triggering an individual stock trading pause and subsequent transactions that may occur before the trading pause is in effect.” I take note of this because most people are not aware of that verbiage and I want everyone out there reading this to note that the SEC itself is aware that their system is not fail-safe. But the 2nd thing is the even more relevant thing. As noted in yesterday morning’s mini-panic in AAPL, even a rumor can drive down a stock and keep it down even as the rumor is proven to be false (as was the case yesterday). But in a case such as PGN, the 90% collapse occurred in a second. What this means is that it is entirely possible that many stocks can do this simultaneously. I abhor being a fear-monger and don't think it's a major worry, but really- think about it. If a staid utility stock like PGN could have a circuit breaker fail, isn’t the likelihood for potential computer error at least the same if not worse than it was before the May 6? My simple answer- “I don’t know”- simply makes me want to point out that based on the failure of PGN’s decline to be contained when it traded down 10%, anything is possible- and that- that is scary.
Markets in Asia overnight were higher with Tokyo up 0.7% and Hong Kong ahead 1.2%. The story is a little different in Europe with the bourses slightly weaker across the board by 0.1% to 0.3% amid some debt worries. The dollar is down moderately against the yen and the euro, oil and bonds are slightly weaker, and gold is slightly stronger. There’s no major economic news today but for the weekly crude oil inventories report. Futures are marginally higher. The markets definitely seem to be at a crossroads with bonds and gold hitting contract highs with the dollar weakening yet equities keep rising. For today, the trend will likely continue but it stands to be a very choppy session with an uncomfortable feel over everything for me as yesterday’s every morning shock declines show it won’t take much for things to reverse. But the forces of end-of-quarter window dressing and trapped shorts should counteract a lot of that nervousness today.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
HPQ- decent earnings guidance
RHT, CRUS- featured on “Mad Money” last night
WAG- closed near a high after announcing great earnings
LULU- closed near a high
CGNX- closed near a high after announcing great earnings
ROVI- closed near a high
KGJI- closed on a high
HDY- closed near a high
VSR- closed near a high
ACAT- closed near a high
BWEN- closed near a high
TRN- closed near a high
PGNX- announced approval of new ready-to-use pre-filled Relistor syringes in the U.S., EU, and Canada
BVN- closed near a high
IL- closed near a high
ZGEN- positive favorable survival data from IL-21 Phase 2a melanoma trial
FDO- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
GMCR- indicated a small accounting error from 2007, but an SEC inquiry as well
ZZ- poor earnings
SMSC- poor earnings guidance
CHTP- share offering
MTRX- poor earnings
MON- closed near a low amid pricing worries on one of its products
MCP- closed near a low
AMED- closed near a low after receiving a civil investigative demand from U.S. Department of Justice
ENDP- island reversal in closing near a low after announcing an accretive acquisition
CCSC- island reversal in closing near a low on its IPO
Earnings:
WED SEP 29 BEFORE
ATU FDO
WED SEP 29 AFTER
MDRX XRTX
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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