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Thursday, September 23, 2010

THURS. SEP. 23- Voicing Thoughts

One of the very unique features at the place where I am fortunate enough to be a trader and a managing partner (Epiphany Trading, LLC) is that we actively seek to foster a feeling of community. When we first formed our firm, we all agreed we’d have a chat room, a microphone, and call out all our trades with as much notice as possible before we did them in utilizing our technology and attempting to aid our traders (since we are all traders ourselves). We quadruple check each other daily. We also have pleaded from day one for all traders to call out their ideas/thoughts so we could all give feedback. I should take a step back. I once worked at a place where I’d good naturedly say “I’m looking to buy IBM at 100 if it gets there” as a for instance, when it was trading 99.95. One of the traders in my office would buy 95,96,97,98,99, wait for me to say in, others to clamor, and sell unsuspectingly to us. When his actions were discovered, he was quickly ostracized and was out of the business within weeks. But it left a lasting impression on me to do the absolute opposite if I was ever in a position to do so and found some great business partners who agreed. It is from this premise that one of the cornerstones of the firm was formed. Along the same vein, we try to foster a very positive atmosphere. Don’t get me wrong- every trader- certainly myself included- is guilty of ‘negative energy’ behaviors. But yesterday alone, in my office, I heard the following comments: “Wow. That was the first profitable trade I’ve had all day,” “my broker is horrible,” “this system sucks,” and “I have to be the unluckiest person ever.” As just noted, we are all capable of negative behaviors- myself at the top of my list. The trick is to watch yourself (something, speaking for me, I’ve gotten better at over the years but can certainly improve as well) For instance, yesterday after missing two trades which would have been quite fruitful (like mid four figure monetarily fruitful), I said I needed a walk so that anyone asking where I was would know, got up, and left for a few minutes. I did not throw my mouse, curse, blame anyone or anything, nor note out loud that I missed out on two opportunities to make what would have been several thousand dollars in profits. The walk helped me, I came back, and put together at least a decent day. The two bottom lines are as follows. First, we have a pretty unique thing going on here; in general, inexperienced traders who keep all of their thoughts to themselves tend to lose because how can anybody more experienced offer feedback since nobody is a mind reader? Second, everyone has their own issues. But negative thoughts/comments can only hurt one’s trading…as well as affect everyone else in a confined space.

Asian markets were closed overnight for various autumnal holidays. However, the European bourses were all hit fairly hard overnight on a report indicating slowing economic activity among the 16 euro nations. Most bourses are now down just over 1%. Oil is down over 1%, gold flat, the dollar is lightly mixed, and bonds are up a little. Jobless claims data came in poor. Existing home sales (4.04 million units) and the LEI (0.1% gain) are expected at 10AM. Futures in this mixture are getting hit rather sharply. Look for the losses to be maintained, but in a choppy range from the open with the wildcards being the economic reports and if the dollar or gold spiral- all of which is somewhat unlikely. Focus on select retailers off of BBBY’s earnings strength, big cap tech after its huge run, monitor any weakness in financials, and particularly note any relative strength plays particularly if the market holds after the 10AM reports.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

BBBY- good earnings

RHT- good earnings

DIN- decent earnings guidance

NFLX- closed near a high at a new all-time high

AAPL- closed near a high at a new all-time high

NFG- closed near a high after announcing positive Marcellus shale well results and exploration of joint-venture opportunities

TTPA- closed near a high on takeover speculation

SVNT- closed near a high on takeover speculation

LVS- closed on a high

KMX- closed near a high after posting good earnings

SAY- closed near a high after announcing it will report earnings this month

EW- new study data indicated patients using EW’s replacement heart valves delivered by catheter had a higher survival rate than those patients who maintained their original valves

TESS- rumors of an acquisition pushed the stock up after-hours

SCHL- decent earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

BMR- share offering

CPRT- poor earnings

CHSI- closed near a low amid a contract dispute with a major client

GS- closed near a low

SEED- near island reversal in closing near a low after announcing a deal with a Chinese agency

BIIB- closed near a low amid safety concerns about one of its drugs

RBCN- closed near a low

MKSI- closed near a low

AEIS- closed near a low

STRI- closed near a low

SKX- closed near a low

VRTX- debt offering


Earnings:

THURS SEP 23 BEFORE

RAD SCHL TXI

THURS SEP 23 AFTER

CMTL FINL NKE

TIBX


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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