So what exactly happened in the middle of the morning on Friday? Well, first, we have to back up. During our morning call, I noted that not only was GOOG down on earnings, BAC and GE despite their wonderful earnings had slipped into negative territory. That was a warning sign and there was pressure all morning long on stocks. Then, Goldman Sachs (GS) announced it was being sued by U.S. regulators for fraud tied to collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s). It is alleged that GS created and sold CDO’s tied to subprime mortgages in 2007 without disclosing that hedge fund Paulson & Co. helped to actually select underlying instruments used to bet against the CDO’s. Thus, GS supposedly allowed a client that was betting against the mortgage market to decide which mortgage securities to include in an investment basket while telling other investors that the financial conduits were actually selected by an independent third party. For its part in the soap opera, GS actually said that it lost almost $100 million because it had in investment in the deal which was substantially more than the $15 million it made in fees. From all of this comes a few thoughts: a)I don’t know exactly how this will turn out, b)Washington wants regulation right now so the timing of this announcement is rather prescient, c)faith in all firms will be undermined a bit as people wonder if there is anybody “next,” and d)what matters in the long-run to the stock market is earnings. So, for day traders, tenets b and c above are what are going to matter. Not only will a few more firms get hit with news like this, there will be many rumors over the next few days and weeks as to who could be next. What is important to monitor is how the stock of GS reacts over the next few days with its vehement denials and to realize that combined with earnings season in full force these next few weeks, we day traders should see a notable pick-up in volatility (which notably began early last week). This is what we want. It’s time to really go to work as it is periods like these which provide chunks of annual income for prepared and diligent traders.
Markets in Asia were down sharply overnight with most markets down about 2%. The European markets are down about ¾% on average. Gold is down slightly, but oil is down 3%. The euro is also slightly weaker. Futures are correspondingly weaker as well. For the day, look for a continuation of the choppiness from Friday with a notable downside bias. Keep your eyes on every GS development, the performance of C and pay particular attention to the stocks with earnings as well as anything performing relatively strong to the market for potential rapid day trades. Also, if things get fast like they were on Friday, be ready to compress your time horizon for your trades.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
RDCM- closed near a high
MBHIP- closed near a high
IMGN- closed near a high after being mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
YMI- announced preclinical efficacy data for JAK ½ inhibitor
MEE- FBR Capital says MEE worth about 58 in a takeover
CRN- being acquired for 1.3 shares of GEO or a share of GEO plus 6 in cash
HAS- decent earnings
IDSA- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
AIG- closed near a low
HSP- got warning letter from FDA for two facilities
GOOG- closed near a low after posting earnings
GPC- closed near a low after posting earnings
FCX, TCK- closed near lows in a weak copper group
ISRG- closed near a low after posting earnings
CLF- closed near a low
EOG- closed near a low
HGSI- announced withdrawal of marketing application of hepatitis C treatment in Europe
LLY- poor earnings
HAL- poor earnings
ACI- poor earnings
Earnings:
MON APR 19 BEFORE
ACI AMLN C
HAL HAS LLY
MMR SPF
MON APR 19 AFTER
ATHR CCK CR
IBM LNCR PKG
STLD VLTR WERN
ZION
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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