A phrase I have tossed around from time-to-time and unfortunately much more often in recent days is “capital preservation day.” The words sound so obvious and so simple, don’t they? “Capital” means “money.” “Preservation” means “maintaining.” “Day” means “24 hours.” So, money maintenance for 24 hours. So. Very. Simple. And yet, we all seem t o struggle with it. Let’s attack this from two different angles. First, why is the concept so very important? If you’re playing basketball and you have four hands in your face, do you take a shot? Better yet, if you are driving a Toyota Corolla on a dirt road just after a downpour and you get stuck in the mud (really stuck), the harder you press on the accelerator, the worse you will make things. You’ll get your car in deeper, won’t get anywhere, and wear out the tread on your tires. So, basically by running in fast motion, you make your situation worse off. Well, it is the same with the stock market. When everything is quiet as it was yesterday, you absolutely must make selected trades and leave everything else alone. The second angle is: why if we know this must we trade? Because we’re bored and under pressure. We sit at the screen knowing we have To earn a living and nothing better to do at the moment so why not buy that 2000 shares of RIMM? Not 500, but 2000 because we need to earn a living. We of course inevitably end up losing $100 on it. And we do it 15 times. And when I say “we,” I could mean all of us as a general rule or certainly “me for around 10 years.” The anecdote is stunningly easy: do a couple of small trades, lose a little, and realize it is a pattern that will consistently reassert itself. If the market is not moving and more specifically, individualized stocks aren’t budging all that much, how can one expect to generate a tremendous income? Thus, it is not worth trying. In environments such as the one we had yesterday, it is crucially important that you pick out your selected terrific spots and leave all else alone. In environments such as the one we had yesterday, it is crucially important that you pick out your selected terrific spots and leave all else alone. In environments such as the one we had yesterday, it is crucially important that you pick out your selected terrific spots and leave all else alone. No. I didn’t make a ‘cut/paste’ error. I am trying to not so subliminally hammer home my point. I take a look at the pictures of my kids, my mortgage statement, and remember the analysis of the last three year’s worth of trades I recently did and realize those people in those pictures and that roof over my head is much more important than gambling a little in inevitably losing. In conclusion, bring a lot of busywork with you to the office, trade when you’re supposed to, get your busywork done when it’s slow, and you’ll be wealthier and have some spare time to boot when it is time to truly preserve capital.
Markets in Asia were lightly mixed overnight with Tokyo down 1/4% and Hong Kong up 1/8%. In Europe, markets are up about 1/4% on average. Oil and gold are rebounding with the dollar getting hit. Welcome to the end of the quarter. Data this morning has been mixed with ADP data worse than expected but final GDP better than expected. Overall, the backdrop remains positive. Look for a mild up day today, but one much choppier than yesterday with a bit mroe action as the war of the Window Dressers enters its final day for a tremendous quarter today. Focus on the numerous microcaps on the watch list.
Watch list:
09302009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
NKE- good earnings
JBL- good earnings
CPD- received a consent decree from the FDA to resume manufacturing after satisfying terms of said decree
HOKU- received major financing
SRLS- got multiple pacts from CDC and NIH worth about $11 million
ZZ- decent earnings
GCI- closed near a high after pre-announcing positive earnings
AMSC- signed a $100 million contract with Sinovel electrical components contract for three megawatt wind turbines
DDRX- closed near a high after an analyst upgrade
MOD- closed near a high after an analyst upgrade
WIN- featured on “Mad Money” last night
OMN- good earnings
AMP- acquiring long-term asset business of BAC’s Columbia Management for about $1 billion
DSCO- established path for potential Surfaxin approval with FDA
ICCC- Mastitis drug met effectiveness at animal study’s endpoint
SVA- obtained 2nd order of H1N1 vaccine from Chinese government
EBS- national Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to fund development of EBS’s anthrax vaccine candidate
TSTR- announced smartphone agreement with AT&T
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
MU- decent earnings, but lukewarm conference call
DRI- terrible earnings
MDRX- poor earnings
WOR- bad earnings
CLP- nine million share offering
UNH, WLP, HUM- featured negatively on “Mad Money” last night
CIT- company may be on verge of declaring bankruptcy; it’d be one of the largest bankruptcies in American history
CHBT- 4.6 million share offering at 15
ATU- bad earnings
ICON- warned on earnings outlook
Earnings:
WED SEP 30 BEFORE
ATU
WED SEP 30 AFTER
LWSN
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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