Once again, the Blogger software is not working properly so I will send the watch list out via e-mail as I did yesterday.
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Perhaps the most interesting earnings report of what has been an incredible earnings (and trading) season in which there have been many opportunities was issued last Wednesday night. One of the main prevailing economic debates has been whether the consumer is going to leave the economy high and dry. Indeed, the savings rate is on the rise. Yet, one of the things that one would think would decline in this time of reined-in consumerism is food. I’m not talking necessarily about 5 lb cans of beans or 40 lb bags of rice for most people although for many, these types of products are staples); rather, I’m talking a lack of fine dining and purchase of specialty items. Yet, shares of Whole Foods Markets (WFMI) have rallied 250% from their low around 8 in November to the Wednesday high of just over 30. Total sales actually increased from quarter-to-quarter as the company smashed its earnings estimates. Think about this. Many people are still willing to go to Whole Foods for their gourmet cheese or organic malted oats. Now, one can certainly believe if they wish that the typical Whole Foods customer is very well-off, but it’s certainly not true anymore. The typical customer now is the soccer Mom looking for a few things for her kids, the father who wants to get really good produce, or the person who believes food should be organic and ‘purer’ than what is found in a mainstream grocery store. Thus, one would think overall that this discretionary spending would be curbed, but it just is not. This tells us two things. First, people like their food! But second, no matter one’s opinion on the long-term direction of the economy, it is certainly worth noting that signs like the WFMI story show that there is no imminent collapse. Heck, shares of Hansen Natural (HANS) in the same vein ran almost 20% on last Friday. People are still spending; there is still money out there (if we could just get the banks to loan their money)! For day traders, one should note the niche stories like this because the short covering pops can be incredible. I have no idea what the ultimate happenstance for the economy will be, but I do know that one can certainly day trade off of the surprise of investors who are wrongly convinced of something incorrect in the immediate-term.
Markets in Asia were hard hit overnight as some air is coming out of the Chinese market ascent with prices in China down 5%, Hong Kong 2.5% and Tokyo 1% plus. The trend, however, shifted in Europe with prices marginally higher- about ¼% on average. All else is quiet. Futures are muted ahead of the 2:15PM ET Fed meeting. It looks to be an exceptionally quiet day for the most part. We’re on the back end of earnings season and news flow overall is becoming to slow as we approach the latter half of August. Focus upon the limited earnings and news flow; trying to trade market direction will be a loser’s game today barring extenuating unforeseen news. And if there’s literally nothing to do (there was precious little yesterday from 10AM-4PM with the major activity occurring before/after trading hours and at the open), find something else to do.
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
JAZZ- fantastic earnings
AMAT- good earnings
CREE- good earnings
WX- great earnings
SATS- closed on a high
PCLN- closed on a high
ZOOM- closed on a high
TEAR- closed on a high
AWI- closed near a high
SGK- closed near a high
CLNE- mentioned positively on “Mad Money” last night
DVAX- European development strategy announced for its Hepatitis B vaccine
EJ- good earnings
TOL- good earnings
M- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
CLWR- poor earnings
WRC- poor earnings
MPEL- shelf offering
GS- closed on a low
BPO- shelf offering
BOBE- decent earnings, but poor sales numbers
CRTX- closed near a low
FDO- mentioned negatively on “Mad Money” last night
PETD- closed near its low; pricing its offering at 12
JASO- bad earnings
Earnings:
WED AUG 12 BEFORE
BHP CCJ EJ
GU JASO M
PGR PWE SLE
TOL
WED AUG 12 AFTER
AAP ANW BYI
HRS KGC LDK
NTES SOL
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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