FYI- The blogger software is not working properly so I am unable to upload the watch list. I am going to e-mail it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, what’s the deal with AIG? There are two tenets at stake in last week’s humongous rally. First, the insurer which was ostensibly bailed out by the U.S. taxpayers reported its first profit in almost two years. It narrowed (although did not eliminate) its investment losses, but saw a rebound in the value of some of its holdings of derivatives. And here’s a fact lost on many people: not only did they have better-than-expected earnings, but they actually earned a pretty amazing nominal net income of $1.82 billion in the 2nd quarter. Thus, it takes some of the pressure off of the new CEO (Robert Benmosche) because it indicates at AIG is finally gaining a little traction. The CEO can showcase the operating profit to prove that the company still has some good assets and that divestitures can be made in a very orderly manner in order to get better prices for AIG shareholders and the U.S. taxpayer. The second reason for the share rise is certainly linked to the first- the stock is reacting to the good news. But this is no normal reaction. The stock had a 1-20 reverse stock split. This means that the true all-time high for the stock is in the neighborhood of 2000. Not the year- the price. The stock has been priced for bankruptcy with many people short the stock as the government effective owns a substantial majority of the company. But here’s the thing- it is hard to go bankrupt when a company makes $2 billion in a quarter. So, with the float significantly reduced, some of the shorts began to panic which led to the spike in the stock. And clearly there is much more room to go potentially. For day trading purposes, it reiterates the age-old theme of going with the flow. Many stocks- rightly or wrongly- are spiking on any whiff of good news right now because, well, maybe they shouldn’t have been beaten down to the levels they were priced at in the first place. So, as you see these spikes, do not try to short the things as they go up; we buy new highs and sell new lows to properly play the momentum. Do not deviate.
Markets overnight were up nicely in Asia with Tokyo up 1% and Hong Kong rebounded 2% after declining Friday. However, the trend shifted a bit in Europe as the unemployment gains were factored in as the bourses close around the time on Friday when the U.S. market topped out thus prices across the board are down ½% on average. Commodities are a bit lower across the board. On what promises to be a hot humid Monday, look for very slow trading, generally to the downside but not by a great margin. The action will once again be on the ever-shrinking pool of earnings plays as earnings season winds down and microcaps. Ostensibly, stick only to these stocks as movements will be relatively muted overall today thus trying to scalp will be even deadlier than normal (if that’s even possible).
Reiterating-Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.If the whole story is not there -If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical patternFFG- closed near a high after posting great earnings
DISH- mentioned on “Fast Money” on Friday; earnings out this morning
ROVI- closed near a high
PNCL- closed near a high after posting good earnings
FBP- closed near a high
AYR- closed near a high after posting good earnings
ASPSV- closed near a high
EUBK- closed on a high
JCP- among other retailers, closed near a high
WLT- closed near a high
HOT- closed near a high
SPDE- rallied sharply Friday after the FCC cleared the company’s solid state drive
FRE- great earnings out after the close on Friday; FNM may move with it
ONNN, BIN- on “Mad Money’ on Friday
INO- signed research collaboration agreement to develop flu vaccines with NIH Vaccine Research Center
CHDX- good earnings
YRCW- Teamsters ratified contract modifications
PWRD- good earnings
ELON- in supply pact with Duke Energy
PCLN- pre-announced good earnings
HRL- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
LEAP- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings
AGX- closed near a lowSKT- warned on earnings outlook
ALD- missed earnings; breached a debt covenant
GSI- poor earnings
Earnings:
Earnings:
MON AUG 10 BEFORE
ALD BPZ CFSG
CRZO DISH DYN
GSI HOC KWK
PWRD SYY VNDA
MON AUG 10 AFTER
CLNE FLR FRPT
HR MDR MR
NLS NUAN PCLN
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
No comments:
Post a Comment