For the 5th day in a row, the Blogger software is not working properly so I will send the watch list out via e-mail as I did the last few days.
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If I tried to fix a leak in my sink and water sprouted up, I guarantee I would never try my hand at plumbing in the kitchen again. If my doorbell stopped working and I tried to fix it and in the course of fixing it, I gave myself a 145 volt shock, I’d never try my hand at being junior electrician again. Gradually getting to my point, if I bought a pick three lottery ticket every day and rarely won, I’d have to stop buying lottery tickets if my living was at stake. Well, a really really really really long time ago- we have to go all the way back to Tuesday- I wrote this- something I beg anyone down money this week to re-read (or read for the first time if you missed it):
http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=slowing+down
The guiding principles of my trading: stagnation, the ability to make at least 20 cents easily in a trade, market with you, liquidity present, proper set-up, confirmation as a decent idea, and newsflow are not just words taking up bandwidth in cyberspace. These seven tenets are what make a good trade. When the newsflow is high, trade and trade actively. Indeed yesterday afternoon, I made rapid trades in AMGN and LVS when they both reported news in the last 1 ½ hours of trading. The last trade of any consequence (a profit or loss of more than $100) I made before this was at 10:57AM. Between 11AM and 3PM or so, I reviewed the earnings for today, finished answering e-mail, updated my commissions/trade spreadsheet, worked on the locate list for today, paid two bills, planned for an upcoming excursion, and returned two phone calls. One thing I did not do: scalp. You see, after figuratively and metaphorically getting myself wet with sink water, electrifying myself repeatedly with the doorbell, and losing in the lottery time and again, I realized that scalping is not the way to go to make money at day trading. And guess what? That is when I started to earn a real living at this. It absolutely perplexes and frustrates me to no end when traders completely ignore the very basic no scalping tenet. I cannot be clearer: net-net, when I do it, I am going to lose. Now, I am arguably the least intelligent person in my trading room, but I do know when enough his enough. If a stock is in a narrow range- at 1:30PM with the market doing nothing and with no news out, it is going to be mighty hard to get a move out of it. So, why trade it? Why? Why? The leading two reasons are desperation and tedium. I say “desperation” because we all trade to make a living (with the desperation created from not being ahead on the day much less the summer generally because of not doing what one was supposed to do particularly during earnings season in terms of intensely studying the earnings reports) and “tedium” because people just cannot help themselves if they are sitting at their terminals. But, 1:30PM in a ploddy market- yeah, that’s not the time to trade. The time to trade is early in the morning and late in the afternoon these days and/or in an active market. If you scalp (particularly if you hold these type of positions against you), enjoy your time trading because the odds are that you will not be day trading a year from now.
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight with Tokyo up slightly, but China gave back 3%. In Europe, prices are modestly ahead. Bonds are up a bit as are commodities (anyone notice gold is approaching $1,000 again?) and the dollar is slightly weaker. As for today, it looks to be a quiet Friday in Manhattan. The updraft will likely continue albeit in muted fashion. Earnings season is winding down but the tertiary microcaps are certainly in play; focus upon those stocks as all else will ostensibly be noise.
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
GRRF- great earnings
KG- got FDA approval for Embeda
LVS- received positive credit news late yesterday afternoon; may be follow thru momentum today along with MGM and WYNN
JWN- decent earnings
ADSK- decent earnings
ORN- closed near a high
STEC- closed near a high
CBC- closed near a high
CPO- closed near a high
MEE- closed near a high
HOOK- closed near a high
DV- decent earnings
EFUT- entered into five year service pact with 3.Z.U
BAC, COF- closed near highs after the news of the Paulson investment
FSYS- mentioned positively on “Mad Money” last night
ANF- decent earnings
VIT- decent earnings
RMBS- received upgrade at Capstone
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
UTA- closed near a low after posting great earnings
RRGB- poor earnings
JADE- poor earnings
CRDC- poor earnings
MON- put in “Sell Block” on “Mad Money” last night
JCP- poor earnings
Earnings:
FRI AUG 14 BEFORE
ANF JCP VIT
FRI AUG 14 AFTER
PBR
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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