As I began watching the news reports last night of the death of Osama bin Laden, I remembered back to the first time I had heard of him- 1998. I read several stories about him and knew of his actions. Upon getting married in August 2001, I took a three week honeymoon to Australia and New Zealand. While there, I noted a missile attack in the Middle East. About 10 days in, I told my newlywed wife I was getting antsy. She of course thought I was crazy and we had our first true argument because she felt it was her rather than my strange vibes. But it wasn't. When the first plane hit the World Trade Center on that horrible September day in 2001, I immediately said "this is bin Laden." I started trying to get ahold of everyone in the New York area (I lived in Chicago at the time) in telling them to be careful. As time progressed, certainly bin Laden was prominent but has largely become a symbolic target with much of his effectiveness having been taken away over the years. But he has no doubt been a unifying force for the venom and hurt of countless people across the world in the War on Terror. Alas, this is a trading blog so among my thoughts is this- what really changed? With bin Laden largely a figure head these last few years, the world is still a very dangerous place- and perhaps moreso today than in 2001...much less three days ago as Gaddafi was almost killed over the weekend with bin Laden now gone. So there will be euphoria by many today as well as in the financial markets but let's not forget that this euphoria should be tempered due to many terror cell elements out there. Indeed, the rally may be quite capped as the realization sets in this is indeed the end of a horrible chapter of history but it is quite possibly the start of a new one with the true operatives of organizations such as al Qaeda still quite alive and active.
Markets were mixed in Asia overnight with Sydney down slightly but Tokyo up 1.6%. Prices are higher in Europe with Frankfurt up 0.7% and Paris 0.4%. Gold is flat along with the dollar. Oil and silver are down sharply albeit off of their lows. Construction Spending (0.0%) and the ISM Index (59.7) are due out at 10AM with auto and truck sales out at 3PM. Equity futures are nicely ahead but off of their overnight highs. For the day, the tone seems to be set with the bin Laden capture and a rash of mergers. The focus today for me will likely be in the earnings plays, the myriad of merger plays, and relative weakness plays.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
RADS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
ACOM- closed near a high after posting good earnings
SWKS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
LFT- closed near a high after holding conference call and increased stock buyback program size
WLT- closed near a high
GS- closed near a high
OXY- closed near a high amid continued gains following earnings from Thursday morning
EQT- closed near a high amid continued gains following earnings from Thursday morning
JKS- decent earnings
HUM- decent earnings
CPO- decent earnings
AWI- decent earnings
DISH- good earnings
CEPH- received takeover bid from TEVA for $81.50/ share in cash
SPPI- FDA approved Fusilev in patients with colorectal cancer
TIVO- received $500 million in patent settlement with DISH Network and EchoStar
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
REGN- closed near a low amid a downgrade and worries in the market for its eye drug
VFC- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
RIMM- closed near a low after posting poor earnings warning
DECK- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
CLF- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
PBI- closed near a low after posting poor earnings
FFIV- closed near a low
YRCW- reached definitive agreements in restructuring plan but will be dilutive for the company
SATS- poor earnings
ACI- to acquire ICO for $14.60/share in cash
Earnings:
MON MAY 2 BEFORE
AWI CPO DISH
EIX HUM JKS
JRCC L SATS
SYY
MON MAY 2 AFTER
ADP AHC APC
BGC BXP CHK
CRK DNDN EXM
FMC FN FST
HIG HLF HOLX
IRF NETL PFG
PRE RBC VVUS
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
No comments:
Post a Comment